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Championship

Referee: Josh Smith

Bristol City

S S T T U

3–0

Full-time

Swansea

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 34%

40%

27%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

47%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,03 xG 0,94

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 17

8 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 8

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 8. · Swansea 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	15	10	4	1	+27	+16.5	34
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+6	+2.5	28
3	Stoke	15	8	3	4	+11	-0.4	27
4	Preston	16	7	5	4	+5	-0.0	26
5	Hull	15	7	4	4	+2	-7.8	25
6	Millwall	15	7	4	4	-3	+2.5	25
7	Ipswich	14	6	5	3	+10	+11.6	23
8	Bristol City	15	6	5	4	+4	+0.4	23
9	Charlton	15	6	5	4	+4	-2.1	23
10	Derby	15	6	5	4	+1	-5.6	23
11	Birmingham	15	6	3	6	+3	+9.4	21
12	Leicester	15	5	6	4	+2	-1.5	21
13	Wrexham	15	5	6	4	+1	-3.9	21
14	West Brom	15	6	3	6	-2	+0.2	21
15	Watford	15	5	5	5	+1	+2.4	20
16	Blackburn	15	6	1	8	-4	+4.2	19
17	QPR	15	5	4	6	-6	+0.0	19
18	Southampton	14	4	5	5	-3	+3.2	17
19	Swansea	15	4	5	6	-4	-6.1	17
20	Portsmouth	15	3	5	7	-8	-5.6	14
21	Oxford	15	3	4	8	-6	-3.7	13
22	Sheffield United	15	3	1	11	-15	-0.4	10
23	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-9	-5.9	9
24	Sheffield Weds	15	1	5	9	-17	-9.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	7	5	2	0	+15	+6.6	17
2	Watford	8	5	2	1	+6	+3.7	17
3	Middlesbrough	7	5	2	0	+5	-0.2	17
4	Preston	9	5	2	2	+4	-0.2	17
5	Hull	8	5	2	1	+3	-2.0	17
6	Ipswich	8	4	3	1	+6	+10.4	15
7	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+9	+9.4	14
8	Charlton	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.2	14
9	Stoke	7	4	1	2	+6	+2.4	13
10	Millwall	8	4	1	3	-2	+1.8	13
11	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.1	12
12	Wrexham	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.6	12
13	Derby	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.3	12
14	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	-1.3	11
15	Leicester	7	2	4	1	+1	+2.8	10
16	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.4	9
17	Southampton	6	2	2	2	+0	+5.0	8
18	QPR	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.1	8
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-3	-0.3	8
20	Oxford	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.1	6
21	Blackburn	7	1	1	5	-6	+0.8	4
22	Sheffield United	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.4	4
23	Sheffield Weds	8	0	2	6	-15	-6.8	2
24	Norwich	7	0	0	7	-8	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	8	5	2	1	+12	+9.9	17
2	Blackburn	8	5	0	3	+2	+3.4	15
3	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+5	-2.8	14
4	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+3	+1.6	12
5	Millwall	7	3	3	1	-1	+0.8	12
6	Leicester	8	3	2	3	+1	-4.3	11
7	Derby	7	3	2	2	+1	-5.3	11
8	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+1	+2.7	11
9	QPR	8	3	2	3	-4	-3.0	11
10	Wrexham	7	2	3	2	+1	-5.5	9
11	Preston	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.2	9
12	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.6	9
13	Charlton	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.2	9
14	Southampton	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.8	9
15	West Brom	8	3	0	5	-4	-2.9	9
16	Ipswich	6	2	2	2	+4	+1.2	8
17	Swansea	7	2	2	3	+0	-3.7	8
18	Hull	7	2	2	3	-1	-5.8	8
19	Oxford	8	2	1	5	-2	-4.7	7
20	Birmingham	8	2	1	5	-6	+0.0	7
21	Sheffield Weds	7	1	3	3	-2	-3.1	6
22	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-5	-5.3	6
23	Sheffield United	8	2	0	6	-8	-1.8	6
24	Watford	7	0	3	4	-5	-1.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.