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Taça de Portugal

Velense

1–2

Full-time

Régua

T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Cinfães	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Academica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Estrela Vendas Novas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Operário	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Ferreira Zêzere	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Guarda	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Brito	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Moura	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Vila Real	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Cinfães	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Academica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Ferreira Zêzere	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Guarda	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Brito	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Moura	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Vila Real	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Estrela Vendas Novas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Operário	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

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B ✓

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Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

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U1,5

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O2,5 ✓

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U2,5

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O3,5

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U3,5 ✓

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Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

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BLS nei

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Recent matches

No matches played yet.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Odds comparison

Recent matches