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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Newcastle

S T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Chelsea

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 44%

32%

55%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

45%

59%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

59%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

30% Possession 70%

7 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 10

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 13. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	21	20	1	0	+36	61
2	Man City	23	15	3	5	+37	48
3	Leicester	22	14	3	5	+26	45
4	Chelsea	22	12	3	7	+10	39
5	Man United	22	9	7	6	+11	34
6	Wolves	23	8	10	5	+4	34
7	Sheffield United	23	8	9	6	+3	33
8	Tottenham	23	8	7	8	+5	31
9	Crystal Palace	23	7	9	7	-4	30
10	Arsenal	23	6	11	6	-2	29
11	Everton	23	8	5	10	-7	29
12	Southampton	23	8	4	11	-13	28
13	Newcastle	22	7	5	10	-13	26
14	Brighton	23	6	7	10	-5	25
15	Burnley	22	7	3	12	-13	24
16	West Ham	22	6	5	11	-8	23
17	Watford	23	5	8	10	-14	23
18	Aston Villa	23	6	4	13	-15	22
19	Bournemouth	23	5	5	13	-16	20
20	Norwich	23	4	5	14	-22	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	11	0	0	+20	33
2	Man City	12	8	2	2	+19	26
3	Leicester	11	7	2	2	+9	23
4	Man United	11	6	4	1	+14	22
5	Tottenham	11	6	2	3	+10	20
6	Everton	11	6	2	3	+2	20
7	Chelsea	11	5	2	4	+4	17
8	Brighton	12	4	5	3	+3	17
9	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+3	17
10	Wolves	11	4	5	2	+2	17
11	Arsenal	12	4	5	3	+0	17
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	4	3	+0	16
13	Newcastle	11	4	4	3	-1	16
14	Burnley	11	5	0	6	-3	15
15	Watford	12	3	5	4	-3	14
16	Aston Villa	11	4	2	5	-6	14
17	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-7	12
18	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-3	11
19	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-15	11
20	Bournemouth	11	2	4	5	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Man City	11	7	1	3	+18	22
3	Leicester	11	7	1	3	+17	22
4	Chelsea	11	7	1	3	+6	22
5	Wolves	12	4	5	3	+2	17
6	Southampton	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Sheffield United	12	3	7	2	+0	16
8	Crystal Palace	12	3	5	4	-4	14
9	Arsenal	11	2	6	3	-2	12
10	Man United	11	3	3	5	-3	12
11	West Ham	11	3	3	5	-5	12
12	Tottenham	12	2	5	5	-5	11
13	Bournemouth	12	3	1	8	-9	10
14	Newcastle	11	3	1	7	-12	10
15	Everton	12	2	3	7	-9	9
16	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-10	9
17	Watford	11	2	3	6	-11	9
18	Brighton	11	2	2	7	-8	8
19	Aston Villa	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Norwich	11	1	2	8	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.