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Premiership
Referee: C Graham
Hearts
S S S U S
3–2
Full-time
Dundee
U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Dundee
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
0,8
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,8
This season — Premiership · 21/18 matches
Win Ø 40%
52%
28%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
33%
61%
Both score Ø 39%
33%
44%
Average goals
2,0
2,8
Scored
1,1
1,2
Conceded
0,9
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

67% Possession 33%
15 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 1
2 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hearts 3. · Dundee 7. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 22 17 3 2 +38 54
2 Rangers 20 15 1 4 +30 46
3 Hearts 21 11 3 7 +6 36
4 Kilmarnock 22 8 7 7 +1 31
5 St Mirren 22 8 5 9 -4 29
6 Hibernian 20 6 7 7 -3 25
7 Dundee 18 5 7 6 -6 22
8 Aberdeen 18 6 4 8 -7 22
9 Motherwell 21 4 8 9 -9 20
10 ST Johnstone 20 4 7 9 -14 19
11 Ross County 19 4 6 9 -12 18
12 Livingston 21 2 6 13 -20 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

27. Aug -23 Dundee – Hearts 1–0 9. Feb -22 Hearts – Dundee 1–2 18. Dec -21 Dundee – Hearts 0–1 23. Oct -21 Hearts – Dundee 1–1

Match report

Hearts Dundee
19′
⚽ J. McGhee 0–1
A. Bakayoko
20′
ℹ️ Jordan McGhee
VAR: Goal confirmed
A. Forrest 🔁
↦ A. Denholm
33′
38′
⚽ L. Cameron 0–2
D. Costelloe
41′
🟨 Jordan McGhee
Half-time 0–2
J. Grant 🔁
↦ A. Cochrane
46′
49′
🟨 Dara Costelloe
Dexter Lembikisa 🟨
49′
49′
🔁 J. Mulligan
↦ L. McCowan
M. Tait 🔁
↦ B. Baningime
57′
1–2 C. Nieuwenhof ⚽
M. Tait
57′
60′
🟨 Amadou Bakayoko
Lawrence Shankland ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
64′
65′
🟨 Owen Dodgson
70′
🔁 C. Main
↦ Z. Robinson
Y. Oda 🔁
↦ K. Vargas
73′
2–2 D. Lembikisa ⚽
A. Forrest
74′
77′
🟨 Curtis Main
78′
ℹ️ Malachi Boateng
VAR: Penalty cancelled
79′
🟨 Lee Ashcroft
81′
🔁 C. Reilly
↦ A. Bakayoko
3–2 Y. Oda ⚽
A. Forrest
86′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Hearts

3-5-2
28 Z. Clark G
2 F. Kent D
4 C. Halkett D
3 S. Kingsley D
81 D. Lembikisa M
8 C. Nieuwenhof M
6 B. Baningime M
22 A. Denholm M
19 A. Cochrane M
9 L. Shankland F
77 K. Vargas F
Bench (9)
17 A. Forrest
7 J. Grant
25 M. Tait
11 Y. Oda
54 J. Wilson
24 F. Pollock
30 K. Tagawa
21 T. Sibbick
1 C. Gordon

Coach: S. Naismith

Dundee

5-3-2
31 T. Carson G
6 J. McGhee D
14 L. Ashcroft D
5 J. Shaughnessy D
3 O. Dodgson D
44 D. Costelloe D
10 L. Cameron M
23 M. Boateng M
17 L. McCowan M
16 Z. Robinson F
9 A. Bakayoko F
Bench (9)
15 J. Mulligan
8 C. Main
18 C. Reilly
19 F. Robertson
28 M. Sylla
4 R. Astley
7 S. Tiffoney
30 H. Sharp
21 R. Howley

Coach: T. Docherty

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,73
🔒
U
3,74
🔒
B
4,65
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,89
🔒
U2,5
1,88
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Graham · 44 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.