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Bundesliga
Referee: D Siebert
Bielefeld
U S U S T
1–4
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bielefeld Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,3
4,8
Scored
1,5
3,5
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+2,2
This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,3
6,7
Scored
0,7
4,3
Conceded
0,7
2,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

33% Possession 67%
11 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 9
5 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 10
2 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 6
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Bielefeld 12. · Bayern Munich 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 RB Leipzig 4 3 1 0 +8 10
2 Dortmund 4 3 0 1 +6 9
3 Stuttgart 4 2 1 1 +4 7
4 Ein Frankfurt 3 2 1 0 +3 7
5 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 +2 7
6 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 +0 7
7 Bayern Munich 3 2 0 1 +6 6
8 Hoffenheim 4 2 0 2 +2 6
9 Leverkusen 4 1 3 0 +1 6
10 Freiburg 4 1 2 1 -3 5
11 Union Berlin 3 1 1 1 +2 4
12 Bielefeld 3 1 1 1 +0 4
13 M'gladbach 3 1 1 1 -1 4
14 Wolfsburg 3 0 3 0 +0 3
15 Hertha 4 1 0 3 -2 3
16 FC Koln 3 0 0 3 -4 0
17 Mainz 4 0 0 4 -10 0
18 Schalke 04 3 0 0 3 -14 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bielefeld Bayern Munich
8′
T. Müller 0–1
25′
R. Lewandowski 0–2
L. Goretzka
Half-time 0–3
46′
R. Lewandowski 0–3
T. Müller
51′
T. Müller 0–4
R. Lewandowski
1–4 R. Doan
F. Klos
58′
65′
🔁 Javi Martínez
↦ L. Goretzka
65′
🔁 Douglas Costa
↦ S. Gnabry
R. Yabo 🔁
↦ C. Gebauer
70′
S. Schipplock 🔁
↦ F. Kunze
70′
Nathan De Medina 🟨
73′
76′
🟥 Corentin Tolisso
B. Behrendt 🔁
↦ N. De Medina
83′
86′
🔁 E. Choupo-Moting
↦ R. Lewandowski
86′
🔁 J. Musiala
↦ K. Coman
N. Seufert 🔁
↦ R. Doan
90′
J. Edmundsson 🔁
↦ M. Hartel
90′
90′
🔁 A. Davies
↦ L. Hernández
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Bielefeld

4-2-3-1
1 S. Ortega Moreno G
6 M. van der Hoorn D
15 N. De Medina D
23 A. Lucoqui D
2 A. Pieper D
19 M. Prietl M
30 M. Hartel M
7 C. Gebauer M
16 F. Kunze M
8 R. Doan M
9 F. Klos F
Bench (9)
10 R. Yabo
36 S. Schipplock
3 B. Behrendt
20 N. Seufert
14 J. Edmundsson
34 O. Linnér
18 S. Córdova
5 J. Laursen
4 J. Nilsson

Coach: U. Neuhaus

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
27 D. Alaba D
4 N. Süle D
21 L. Hernández D
5 B. Pavard D
18 L. Goretzka M
24 C. Tolisso M
25 T. Müller M
9 R. Lewandowski F
7 S. Gnabry M
29 K. Coman M
Bench (9)
8 Javi Martínez
11 Douglas Costa
13 E. Choupo-Moting
42 J. Musiala
19 A. Davies
20 B. Sarr
22 Marc Roca
35 A. Nübel
17 J. Boateng

Coach: H. Flick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
13,73
U
7,73
B ✓
1,19
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,28
U2,5
3,61
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.