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Bundesliga

Referee: B Cortus

Freiburg

T T S T U

2–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

4,3

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 47%

44%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

56%

69%

Both score Ø 63%

56%

69%

Average goals

2,6

4,1

Scored

1,6

2,4

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

43% Possession 57%

14 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 8

6 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 7. · Leverkusen 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	1	2	+40	43
2	Dortmund	17	11	1	5	+15	34
3	Leverkusen	16	8	4	4	+13	28
4	Hoffenheim	17	8	4	5	+9	28
5	Ein Frankfurt	17	7	6	4	+3	27
6	Union Berlin	17	7	6	4	+2	27
7	Freiburg	16	7	5	4	+11	26
8	Mainz	17	7	3	7	+8	24
9	RB Leipzig	17	6	4	7	+8	22
10	FC Koln	16	5	7	4	-1	22
11	Hertha	17	6	3	8	-15	21
12	Bochum	17	6	2	9	-10	20
13	Wolfsburg	17	6	2	9	-12	20
14	M'gladbach	17	5	4	8	-10	19
15	Augsburg	17	4	6	7	-9	18
16	Stuttgart	16	4	5	7	-8	17
17	Bielefeld	17	3	7	7	-8	16
18	Greuther Furth	17	1	2	14	-36	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	0	1	+23	24
2	Dortmund	9	8	0	1	+14	24
3	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+13	18
4	Mainz	9	5	3	1	+13	18
5	Union Berlin	9	5	3	1	+4	18
6	Hoffenheim	8	5	2	1	+10	17
7	FC Koln	8	4	3	1	+6	15
8	Bochum	8	4	2	2	+4	14
9	Hertha	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	M'gladbach	8	4	2	2	+1	14
11	Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	+5	13
12	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	4	1	+4	13
13	Freiburg	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	Stuttgart	9	3	2	4	-2	11
15	Augsburg	8	3	2	3	-3	11
16	Wolfsburg	9	3	1	5	-6	10
17	Bielefeld	9	1	5	3	-5	8
18	Greuther Furth	8	1	2	5	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+17	19
2	Leverkusen	8	4	3	1	+8	15
3	Freiburg	9	4	3	2	+8	15
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	-1	14
5	Hoffenheim	9	3	2	4	-1	11
6	Dortmund	8	3	1	4	+1	10
7	Wolfsburg	8	3	1	4	-6	10
8	Union Berlin	8	2	3	3	-2	9
9	Bielefeld	8	2	2	4	-3	8
10	Augsburg	9	1	4	4	-6	7
11	FC Koln	8	1	4	3	-7	7
12	Hertha	9	2	1	6	-18	7
13	Mainz	8	2	0	6	-5	6
14	Stuttgart	7	1	3	3	-6	6
15	Bochum	9	2	0	7	-14	6
16	M'gladbach	9	1	2	6	-11	5
17	RB Leipzig	8	0	4	4	-5	4
18	Greuther Furth	9	0	0	9	-28	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.