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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

RB Leipzig

S S S U S

3–1

Full-time

Union Berlin

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,5

2,3

Scored

3,2

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 50%

65%

35%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

82%

47%

Both score Ø 65%

76%

53%

Average goals

4,0

2,6

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

19 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

3 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 1. · Union Berlin 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	17	11	4	2	+28	37
2	M'gladbach	18	11	2	5	+13	35
3	Bayern Munich	17	10	3	4	+24	33
4	Dortmund	18	9	6	3	+19	33
5	Schalke 04	18	9	6	3	+10	33
6	Freiburg	18	8	5	5	+5	29
7	Leverkusen	17	8	4	5	+2	28
8	Hoffenheim	18	8	3	7	-4	27
9	Wolfsburg	18	6	6	6	-2	24
10	Augsburg	18	6	5	7	-5	23
11	Ein Frankfurt	18	6	3	9	-1	21
12	Union Berlin	17	6	2	9	-4	20
13	FC Koln	18	6	2	10	-11	20
14	Hertha	17	5	4	8	-7	19
15	Mainz	18	6	0	12	-15	18
16	Werder Bremen	18	4	5	9	-17	17
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	18	4	3	11	-19	15
18	Paderborn	17	3	3	11	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Bayern Munich	9	6	1	2	+19	19
3	Schalke 04	10	5	4	1	+5	19
4	Dortmund	8	5	3	0	+17	18
5	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+14	17
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Union Berlin	9	5	0	4	+1	15
8	Augsburg	9	4	2	3	+3	14
9	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Leverkusen	9	3	4	2	+2	13
11	FC Koln	9	4	1	4	+0	13
12	Wolfsburg	9	3	4	2	+0	13
13	Hoffenheim	10	4	1	5	-6	13
14	Hertha	8	3	1	4	-3	10
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	1	5	-7	10
16	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-6	9
17	Paderborn	9	2	1	6	-7	7
18	Werder Bremen	8	1	2	5	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+14	20
2	Dortmund	10	4	3	3	+2	15
3	Freiburg	10	4	3	3	+2	15
4	Leverkusen	8	5	0	3	+0	15
5	Bayern Munich	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Schalke 04	8	4	2	2	+5	14
7	Hoffenheim	8	4	2	2	+2	14
8	M'gladbach	9	4	1	4	+1	13
9	Werder Bremen	10	3	3	4	-6	12
10	Wolfsburg	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Hertha	9	2	3	4	-4	9
12	Augsburg	9	2	3	4	-8	9
13	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-9	9
14	FC Koln	9	2	1	6	-11	7
15	Ein Frankfurt	9	2	0	7	-6	6
16	Union Berlin	8	1	2	5	-5	5
17	Paderborn	8	1	2	5	-9	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	1	2	6	-12	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.