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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Union Berlin

T U S U T

4–2

Full-time

Freiburg

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 52%

52%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,49 xG 2,06

36% Possession 64%

10 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 4. · Freiburg 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	31	19	8	4	+49	+12.7	65
2	Dortmund	31	20	4	7	+33	+15.3	64
3	RB Leipzig	31	17	6	8	+18	+10.8	57
4	Union Berlin	31	16	8	7	+12	-3.9	56
5	Freiburg	31	16	8	7	+8	-5.9	56
6	Leverkusen	31	14	6	11	+11	+9.2	48
7	Wolfsburg	31	12	10	9	+11	+4.5	46
8	Mainz	31	12	9	10	+5	-0.2	45
9	Ein Frankfurt	31	11	10	10	+2	-0.8	43
10	FC Koln	32	10	11	11	-4	+4.6	41
11	M'gladbach	31	10	9	12	-2	-2.8	39
12	Werder Bremen	31	10	5	16	-11	-5.8	35
13	Augsburg	31	9	7	15	-15	-8.3	34
14	Hoffenheim	31	9	5	17	-10	-5.2	32
15	Schalke 04	31	7	9	15	-28	-2.2	30
16	Stuttgart	31	6	10	15	-15	+1.2	28
17	Bochum	31	8	4	19	-36	-9.4	28
18	Hertha	32	6	7	19	-28	-14.0	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	15	13	1	1	+35	+10.6	40
2	Bayern Munich	15	10	5	0	+32	+12.5	35
3	RB Leipzig	15	11	2	2	+17	+0.3	35
4	Union Berlin	15	9	6	0	+16	-0.5	33
5	Freiburg	16	9	4	3	+13	-1.9	31
6	M'gladbach	16	9	3	4	+13	+4.1	30
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	5	3	+13	+5.2	26
8	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+12	+5.0	26
9	Mainz	16	6	6	4	+9	-0.2	24
10	FC Koln	16	6	5	5	+9	+7.0	23
11	Wolfsburg	15	5	7	3	+9	+5.6	22
12	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	-5	-2.5	22
13	Hoffenheim	16	6	2	8	-3	+1.6	20
14	Hertha	16	5	5	6	-3	-2.5	20
15	Bochum	15	6	2	7	-8	-2.1	20
16	Stuttgart	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.9	19
17	Schalke 04	16	5	4	7	-13	-1.8	19
18	Werder Bremen	16	5	1	10	-2	+0.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	9	3	4	+17	+0.3	30
2	Freiburg	15	7	4	4	-5	-4.0	25
3	Wolfsburg	16	7	3	6	+2	-1.2	24
4	Dortmund	16	7	3	6	-2	+4.7	24
5	Union Berlin	16	7	2	7	-4	-3.4	23
6	RB Leipzig	16	6	4	6	+1	+10.6	22
7	Leverkusen	15	6	4	5	-1	+4.2	22
8	Mainz	15	6	3	6	-4	-0.0	21
9	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-9	-6.5	19
10	FC Koln	16	4	6	6	-13	-2.4	18
11	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	5	7	-11	-6.0	17
12	Hoffenheim	15	3	3	9	-7	-6.8	12
13	Augsburg	15	3	3	9	-10	-5.8	12
14	Schalke 04	15	2	5	8	-15	-0.3	11
15	M'gladbach	15	1	6	8	-15	-6.9	9
16	Stuttgart	16	1	6	9	-16	-0.7	9
17	Bochum	16	2	2	12	-28	-7.2	8
18	Hertha	16	1	2	13	-25	-11.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.