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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Leeds

T T U T T

2–2

Full-time

Newcastle

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,3

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

3,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 35/34 matches

Win Ø 37%

20%

53%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

63%

47%

Both score Ø 58%

66%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

2,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,06 xG 2,42

36% Possession 64%

9 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 19. · Newcastle 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	34	26	4	4	+58	+25.5	82
2	Arsenal	35	25	6	4	+44	+11.2	81
3	Newcastle	34	18	11	5	+32	+13.7	65
4	Man United	34	19	6	9	+8	+2.4	63
5	Liverpool	35	18	8	9	+25	+12.1	62
6	Tottenham	35	17	6	12	+7	-0.6	57
7	Brighton	33	16	7	10	+18	+19.9	55
8	Aston Villa	35	16	6	13	+3	-1.3	54
9	Brentford	35	12	14	9	+7	+2.1	50
10	Fulham	35	14	6	15	+1	-10.5	48
11	Chelsea	34	11	9	14	-5	+2.4	42
12	Crystal Palace	35	10	10	15	-11	-3.9	40
13	Wolves	35	11	7	17	-20	-9.7	40
14	Bournemouth	35	11	6	18	-30	-5.9	39
15	West Ham	35	10	7	18	-12	-3.8	37
16	Nott'm Forest	35	8	9	18	-31	-16.3	33
17	Everton	35	7	11	17	-21	-11.4	32
18	Leicester	35	8	6	21	-15	-1.5	30
19	Leeds	35	7	9	19	-25	-11.8	30
20	Southampton	35	6	6	23	-33	-12.4	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	18	16	1	1	+42	+16.1	49
2	Liverpool	18	13	4	1	+29	+13.1	43
3	Arsenal	17	13	3	1	+26	+10.7	42
4	Man United	16	12	3	1	+20	+8.3	39
5	Tottenham	18	12	1	5	+14	+3.3	37
6	Newcastle	17	10	5	2	+19	+10.5	35
7	Aston Villa	17	10	2	5	+10	+3.1	32
8	Brentford	17	8	7	2	+14	+4.4	31
9	Brighton	17	9	3	5	+14	+13.3	30
10	Wolves	18	9	2	7	-1	-0.4	29
11	Fulham	18	8	4	6	+2	-4.0	28
12	Nott'm Forest	18	7	6	5	+2	-8.2	27
13	West Ham	18	7	4	7	+0	+1.5	25
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	-4	-3.4	24
15	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+1	+4.0	23
16	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-7	-2.2	22
17	Leeds	17	5	6	6	-8	-1.9	21
18	Everton	17	5	3	9	-9	-2.1	18
19	Leicester	17	4	4	9	-2	-0.6	16
20	Southampton	17	2	4	11	-16	-5.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	12	3	3	+18	+0.5	39
2	Man City	16	10	3	3	+16	+9.3	33
3	Newcastle	17	8	6	3	+13	+3.1	30
4	Brighton	16	7	4	5	+4	+6.6	25
5	Man United	18	7	3	8	-12	-5.9	24
6	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	-7	-4.4	22
7	Fulham	17	6	2	9	-1	-6.5	20
8	Tottenham	17	5	5	7	-7	-4.0	20
9	Liverpool	17	5	4	8	-4	-0.9	19
10	Chelsea	17	5	4	8	-6	-1.6	19
11	Brentford	18	4	7	7	-7	-2.3	19
12	Bournemouth	17	5	2	10	-23	-3.7	17
13	Crystal Palace	18	4	4	10	-7	-0.5	16
14	Everton	18	2	8	8	-12	-9.3	14
15	Leicester	18	4	2	12	-13	-0.9	14
16	Southampton	18	4	2	12	-17	-7.3	14
17	West Ham	17	3	3	11	-12	-5.3	12
18	Wolves	17	2	5	10	-19	-9.3	11
19	Leeds	18	2	3	13	-17	-9.9	9
20	Nott'm Forest	17	1	3	13	-33	-8.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.