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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

Dortmund

S U S U S

5–2

Full-time

M'gladbach

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,8

1,7

Scored

2,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 49%

65%

32%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

68%

61%

Both score Ø 57%

55%

58%

Average goals

3,6

3,0

Scored

2,4

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

5,49 xG 1,95

55% Possession 45%

33 Shots 13

13 Shots on target 8

8 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · M'gladbach 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	20	8	4	+55	+17.7	68
2	Dortmund	31	20	4	7	+33	+15.3	64
3	Union Berlin	32	17	8	7	+14	-4.4	59
4	RB Leipzig	31	17	6	8	+18	+10.8	57
5	Freiburg	32	16	8	8	+6	-5.3	56
6	Wolfsburg	32	13	10	9	+12	+4.6	49
7	Leverkusen	31	14	6	11	+11	+9.2	48
8	Ein Frankfurt	32	12	10	10	+5	+0.4	46
9	Mainz	32	12	9	11	+2	-1.4	45
10	FC Koln	32	10	11	11	-4	+4.6	41
11	M'gladbach	31	10	9	12	-2	-2.8	39
12	Werder Bremen	31	10	5	16	-11	-5.8	35
13	Augsburg	32	9	7	16	-16	-7.7	34
14	Hoffenheim	32	9	5	18	-11	-5.3	32
15	Bochum	32	9	4	19	-35	-10.0	31
16	Schalke 04	32	7	9	16	-34	-7.1	30
17	Stuttgart	31	6	10	15	-15	+1.2	28
18	Hertha	32	6	7	19	-28	-14.0	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	15	13	1	1	+35	+10.6	40
2	Bayern Munich	16	11	5	0	+38	+17.4	38
3	Union Berlin	16	10	6	0	+18	-1.1	36
4	RB Leipzig	15	11	2	2	+17	+0.3	35
5	Freiburg	16	9	4	3	+13	-1.9	31
6	M'gladbach	16	9	3	4	+13	+4.1	30
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	5	3	+16	+6.5	29
8	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+12	+5.0	26
9	Wolfsburg	16	6	7	3	+10	+5.7	25
10	Mainz	16	6	6	4	+9	-0.2	24
11	FC Koln	16	6	5	5	+9	+7.0	23
12	Bochum	16	7	2	7	-7	-2.8	23
13	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	-5	-2.5	22
14	Hoffenheim	16	6	2	8	-3	+1.6	20
15	Hertha	16	5	5	6	-3	-2.5	20
16	Stuttgart	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.9	19
17	Schalke 04	16	5	4	7	-13	-1.8	19
18	Werder Bremen	16	5	1	10	-2	+0.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	9	3	4	+17	+0.3	30
2	Freiburg	16	7	4	5	-7	-3.4	25
3	Wolfsburg	16	7	3	6	+2	-1.2	24
4	Dortmund	16	7	3	6	-2	+4.7	24
5	Union Berlin	16	7	2	7	-4	-3.4	23
6	RB Leipzig	16	6	4	6	+1	+10.6	22
7	Leverkusen	15	6	4	5	-1	+4.2	22
8	Mainz	16	6	3	7	-7	-1.2	21
9	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-9	-6.5	19
10	FC Koln	16	4	6	6	-13	-2.4	18
11	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	5	7	-11	-6.0	17
12	Hoffenheim	16	3	3	10	-8	-6.9	12
13	Augsburg	16	3	3	10	-11	-5.2	12
14	Schalke 04	16	2	5	9	-21	-5.3	11
15	M'gladbach	15	1	6	8	-15	-6.9	9
16	Stuttgart	16	1	6	9	-16	-0.7	9
17	Bochum	16	2	2	12	-28	-7.2	8
18	Hertha	16	1	2	13	-25	-11.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.