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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Marseille

U U T T U

3–0

Full-time

Le Havre

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Le Havre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

57%

71%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,85 xG 0,18

64% Possession 36%

14 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Marseille 13. · Le Havre 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	8	5	2	1	+10	+5.3	17
2	Nice	8	4	4	0	+5	+5.9	16
3	Brest	7	4	2	1	+2	+1.9	14
4	Reims	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.1	13
5	Paris SG	7	3	3	1	+8	+8.3	12
6	Rennes	7	2	5	0	+6	+6.6	11
7	Lille	7	3	2	2	+1	+3.7	11
8	Nantes	8	3	2	3	-1	-5.5	11
9	Strasbourg	8	3	1	4	-3	-1.3	10
10	Montpellier	7	2	3	2	+3	+2.9	9
11	Le Havre	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.7	9
12	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	+1	-7.1	9
13	Marseille	7	2	3	2	-2	+4.3	9
14	Metz	8	2	2	4	-7	-7.1	8
15	Lens	7	2	1	4	-5	+0.6	7
16	Lorient	7	1	3	3	-5	-6.1	6
17	Clermont	7	0	2	5	-7	-4.0	2
18	Lyon	7	0	2	5	-10	-8.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+6	+1.8	9
2	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+6	+7.9	8
3	Paris SG	4	2	1	1	+5	+3.1	7
4	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
5	Brest	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.9	7
6	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
7	Lille	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.9	6
8	Nice	4	1	3	0	+2	+4.6	6
9	Reims	4	2	0	2	+1	+4.0	6
10	Le Havre	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.3	6
11	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
12	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	-3.7	5
13	Lorient	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.3	5
14	Lens	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.3	4
15	Metz	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.7	2
17	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-4	-2.9	1
18	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.2	10
2	Monaco	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.5	8
3	Montpellier	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.1	7
4	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.9	7
5	Brest	4	2	1	1	+0	-3.0	7
6	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.8	6
7	Metz	4	2	0	2	-5	-5.8	6
8	Paris SG	3	1	2	0	+3	+5.2	5
9	Lille	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
10	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.6	4
11	Le Havre	3	0	3	0	+0	-4.0	3
12	Rennes	3	0	3	0	+0	-1.3	3
13	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.3	3
14	Lens	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.7	3
15	Marseille	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.8	2
16	Clermont	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
17	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1
18	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.