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Premier League

Referee: L Mason

Southampton

U U S T T

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,3

2,8

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 19/18 matches

Win Ø 46%

42%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

37%

61%

Both score Ø 41%

42%

39%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 1

4 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 11. · Aston Villa 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	20	13	5	2	+24	44
2	Man United	21	12	5	4	+10	41
3	Leicester	20	12	3	5	+14	39
4	Liverpool	20	10	7	3	+17	37
5	West Ham	20	10	5	5	+6	35
6	Tottenham	19	9	6	4	+14	33
7	Everton	19	10	3	6	+5	33
8	Arsenal	21	9	4	8	+6	31
9	Chelsea	20	8	6	6	+10	30
10	Aston Villa	18	9	2	7	+12	29
11	Southampton	19	8	5	6	+3	29
12	Leeds	19	8	2	9	-3	26
13	Crystal Palace	21	7	5	9	-11	26
14	Wolves	21	6	5	10	-9	23
15	Burnley	19	6	4	9	-11	22
16	Newcastle	21	6	4	11	-13	22
17	Brighton	20	3	9	8	-7	18
18	Fulham	20	2	8	10	-12	14
19	West Brom	21	2	6	13	-33	12
20	Sheffield United	21	2	2	17	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	2	1	+15	26
2	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	West Ham	10	5	3	2	+4	18
4	Chelsea	10	4	4	2	+8	16
5	Southampton	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Leicester	10	5	1	4	+3	16
7	Tottenham	10	4	3	3	+3	15
8	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+1	15
9	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-4	15
10	Everton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
11	Man United	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+6	13
13	Burnley	9	4	1	4	-2	13
14	Wolves	10	3	3	4	-1	12
15	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-1	11
16	Newcastle	10	3	2	5	-6	11
17	Brighton	10	0	6	4	-5	6
18	Fulham	10	1	3	6	-8	6
19	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-24	6
20	Sheffield United	10	1	1	8	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	11	8	3	0	+12	27
2	Leicester	10	7	2	1	+11	23
3	Everton	9	6	1	2	+4	19
4	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+11	18
5	Man City	9	5	3	1	+9	18
6	West Ham	10	5	2	3	+2	17
7	Aston Villa	10	5	1	4	+6	16
8	Arsenal	10	5	1	4	+5	16
9	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Liverpool	10	3	5	2	+5	14
11	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
12	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+0	13
13	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Crystal Palace	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Wolves	11	3	2	6	-8	11
17	Burnley	10	2	3	5	-9	9
18	Fulham	10	1	5	4	-4	8
19	West Brom	10	1	3	6	-9	6
20	Sheffield United	11	1	1	9	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.