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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

Union Berlin

S S U T T

2–1

Full-time

Werder Bremen

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 30%

28%

32%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 44%

32%

56%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,16 xG 1,05

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

16 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 14. · Werder Bremen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	25	21	4	0	+47	+28.6	67
2	Bayern Munich	25	18	3	4	+44	+46.9	57
3	Stuttgart	25	17	2	6	+26	+26.3	53
4	RB Leipzig	26	15	4	7	+28	+21.9	49
5	Dortmund	25	13	8	4	+19	+9.5	47
6	Ein Frankfurt	25	10	10	5	+9	-2.7	40
7	Hoffenheim	25	9	6	10	-3	-3.6	33
8	Freiburg	25	9	6	10	-11	-0.5	33
9	Augsburg	25	8	8	9	-1	-3.9	32
10	Werder Bremen	25	8	6	11	-5	-6.1	30
11	Heidenheim	25	7	7	11	-9	-19.4	28
12	M'gladbach	25	6	9	10	-4	-4.1	27
13	Wolfsburg	25	6	7	12	-11	-4.8	25
14	Union Berlin	25	7	4	14	-18	-8.2	25
15	Bochum	25	5	10	10	-22	-17.6	25
16	FC Koln	26	3	9	14	-27	-27.7	18
17	Mainz	25	2	10	13	-26	-6.0	16
18	Darmstadt	25	2	7	16	-36	-28.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	13	11	2	0	+29	+22.1	35
2	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+38	+30.8	34
3	Stuttgart	13	10	2	1	+26	+22.3	32
4	RB Leipzig	13	9	2	2	+22	+17.2	29
5	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	5	1	+10	+5.1	23
6	Dortmund	12	7	2	3	+6	+9.3	23
7	Freiburg	12	5	5	2	+3	+8.2	20
8	Augsburg	13	5	5	3	+2	-0.8	20
9	M'gladbach	13	5	4	4	+5	+5.9	19
10	Werder Bremen	13	5	3	5	+1	+1.6	18
11	Bochum	13	4	6	3	+1	+1.2	18
12	Heidenheim	12	5	3	4	+1	-5.5	18
13	Union Berlin	12	5	2	5	-4	-1.2	17
14	Wolfsburg	12	4	4	4	+2	-1.2	16
15	Hoffenheim	12	3	4	5	-2	+4.4	13
16	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-7	+4.0	10
17	FC Koln	13	2	3	8	-13	-11.0	9
18	Darmstadt	13	1	3	9	-18	-8.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	10	2	0	+18	+6.5	32
2	Dortmund	13	6	6	1	+13	+0.2	24
3	Bayern Munich	12	7	2	3	+6	+16.2	23
4	Stuttgart	12	7	0	5	+0	+4.0	21
5	RB Leipzig	13	6	2	5	+6	+4.7	20
6	Hoffenheim	13	6	2	5	-1	-8.0	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	5	4	-1	-7.9	17
8	Freiburg	13	4	1	8	-14	-8.7	13
9	Augsburg	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.0	12
10	Werder Bremen	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.7	12
11	Heidenheim	13	2	4	7	-10	-13.9	10
12	Wolfsburg	13	2	3	8	-13	-3.6	9
13	FC Koln	13	1	6	6	-14	-16.7	9
14	M'gladbach	12	1	5	6	-9	-10.0	8
15	Union Berlin	13	2	2	9	-14	-7.0	8
16	Darmstadt	12	1	4	7	-18	-20.4	7
17	Bochum	12	1	4	7	-23	-18.8	7
18	Mainz	13	0	6	7	-19	-10.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.