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Bundesliga

Referee: T Reichel

Holstein Kiel

U S S T T

1–6

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–4

0,27 xG 3,25

29% Possession 71%

5 Shots 23

1 Shots on target 13

1 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 10

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 16. · Bayern Munich 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
2	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.3	7
3	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
4	Leverkusen	3	2	0	1	+3	+5.1	6
5	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.0	6
6	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+1	+3.5	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.8	6
8	Union Berlin	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
9	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
10	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.2	3
11	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
12	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.5	3
13	Mainz	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
14	Werder Bremen	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
15	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
16	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
17	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
18	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
2	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+4.1	6
3	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
4	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
5	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
6	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
7	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
8	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.9	3
9	Stuttgart	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
10	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
13	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
14	Wolfsburg	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
15	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
16	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
17	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
18	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.9	6
2	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
3	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
5	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
6	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
7	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
9	Union Berlin	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
10	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
11	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
13	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
14	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
15	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.8	0
16	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
17	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
18	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.