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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

Hoffenheim

S S U S T

1–4

Full-time

Leverkusen

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

2,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,5

5,0

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,88 xG 3,62

40% Possession 60%

14 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 12

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 11. · Leverkusen 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
2	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
3	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.0	6
4	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.9	6
5	Union Berlin	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
6	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
7	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
8	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.3	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.0	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
12	Mainz	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
13	Werder Bremen	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Stuttgart	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
15	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
16	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
17	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
18	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
2	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
3	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
4	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
5	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
6	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
7	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
8	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Stuttgart	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
10	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
13	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
14	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
15	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
16	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
17	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
18	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
2	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
3	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
4	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
6	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
7	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
8	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
9	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
11	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
12	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
13	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
14	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
15	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
16	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
17	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.