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DFB-Pokal

Referee: F Brych

Freiburg

S T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Hamburg

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,3

Scored

1,7

2,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

8,0

Scored

4,0

7,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+4,0

+6,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 12. · Hamburg 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Karlsruhe	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Augsburg	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	FC Koln	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Regensburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+6	3
10	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+4	3
11	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+2	3
18	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Dresden	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Kaiserslautern	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Kickers Offenbach	2	1	0	1	-1	3
30	Holstein Kiel	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Wurzburger Kickers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Alemannia Aachen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Greifswalder FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	TuS Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	VfR Aalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Phönix Lübeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	FC 08 Villingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	SV Meppen	1	0	0	1	-6	0
64	Borussia Hildesheim	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Regensburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Dresden	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Kickers Offenbach	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Wurzburger Kickers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Alemannia Aachen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Greifswalder FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	TuS Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	VfR Aalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
27	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
28	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
29	Phönix Lübeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
30	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
31	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-4	0
32	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-4	0
33	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	FC 08 Villingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
37	SV Meppen	1	0	0	1	-6	0
38	Borussia Hildesheim	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Karlsruhe	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+6	3
3	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+4	3
5	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Kaiserslautern	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
25	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Holstein Kiel	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.