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Bundesliga

Referee: B Brand

Freiburg

T S S T S

0–0

Full-time

Mainz

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

63%

25%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,77 xG 0,53

51% Possession 49%

10 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 6. · Mainz 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	7	2	0	+25	+15.8	23
2	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+10	+1.1	20
3	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	2	2	+9	+2.7	17
4	Leverkusen	9	4	4	1	+5	+9.0	16
5	Dortmund	9	5	1	3	+2	+4.5	16
6	Freiburg	8	5	0	3	+2	+4.4	15
7	Union Berlin	9	4	3	2	+1	-2.2	15
8	Stuttgart	9	3	4	2	+1	+1.5	13
9	Werder Bremen	8	3	3	2	-2	+0.2	12
10	Augsburg	9	3	2	4	-7	-1.7	11
11	Heidenheim	9	3	1	5	+0	+1.1	10
12	M'gladbach	8	3	1	4	-2	-0.6	10
13	Wolfsburg	9	2	3	4	-1	-1.2	9
14	Mainz	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.3	9
15	St Pauli	9	2	2	5	-4	-4.6	8
16	Hoffenheim	9	2	2	5	-6	-7.8	8
17	Holstein Kiel	9	1	2	6	-12	-6.7	5
18	Bochum	9	0	1	8	-20	-11.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	5	5	0	0	+8	+7.4	15
2	Ein Frankfurt	4	3	1	0	+9	+3.1	10
3	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+9	+6.8	10
4	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+7	+3.0	10
5	Augsburg	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.7	10
6	Union Berlin	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.7	10
7	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+4.4	9
8	Stuttgart	4	2	2	0	+5	+6.6	8
9	Leverkusen	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.8	8
10	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.0	6
11	Hoffenheim	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.4	6
12	Heidenheim	4	1	1	2	+0	+2.1	4
13	Holstein Kiel	5	1	0	4	-10	-4.0	3
14	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-4	-1.2	2
15	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-5	-1.1	2
16	St Pauli	4	0	2	2	-5	+0.2	2
17	Werder Bremen	4	0	2	2	-6	-3.0	2
18	Bochum	4	0	1	3	-9	-5.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+16	+9.1	13
2	Werder Bremen	4	3	1	0	+4	+3.2	10
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	1	1	+3	-1.9	10
4	Leverkusen	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.3	8
5	Mainz	3	2	1	0	+4	-3.2	7
6	Wolfsburg	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.0	7
7	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.4	7
8	St Pauli	5	2	0	3	+1	-4.8	6
9	Heidenheim	5	2	0	3	+0	-1.0	6
10	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.0	6
11	Union Berlin	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
12	Stuttgart	5	1	2	2	-4	-5.1	5
13	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
14	Holstein Kiel	4	0	2	2	-2	-2.7	2
15	Hoffenheim	4	0	2	2	-3	-4.4	2
16	Dortmund	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.8	1
17	Augsburg	4	0	1	3	-10	-5.4	1
18	Bochum	5	0	0	5	-11	-6.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.