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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Dortmund

S T S T U

6–0

Full-time

Union Berlin

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 32%

36%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

68%

45%

Both score Ø 61%

77%

45%

Average goals

3,4

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

4,77 xG 0,27

65% Possession 35%

24 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 12. · Union Berlin 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	22	17	4	1	+46	+38.0	55
2	Leverkusen	23	14	8	1	+24	+20.9	50
3	Ein Frankfurt	22	12	6	4	+20	+11.1	42
4	Freiburg	23	12	3	8	-2	+0.8	39
5	Mainz	23	11	5	7	+13	+1.4	38
6	RB Leipzig	22	10	7	5	+7	-6.3	37
7	Stuttgart	22	10	5	7	+7	+8.1	35
8	Wolfsburg	23	9	7	7	+9	-1.2	34
9	M'gladbach	23	10	4	9	+0	-5.3	34
10	Augsburg	23	8	7	8	-8	-8.1	31
11	Werder Bremen	23	8	6	9	-12	-3.0	30
12	Dortmund	22	8	5	9	-1	+4.9	29
13	Union Berlin	22	6	6	10	-8	-1.8	24
14	St Pauli	23	6	3	14	-9	-6.8	21
15	Hoffenheim	22	5	6	11	-16	-10.2	21
16	Bochum	23	3	6	14	-25	-17.1	15
17	Heidenheim	22	4	2	16	-20	-9.2	14
18	Holstein Kiel	23	3	4	16	-25	-16.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	10	1	0	+28	+25.5	31
2	Leverkusen	12	8	3	1	+14	+13.3	27
3	Freiburg	11	8	1	2	+11	+4.6	25
4	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	3	1	+15	+10.9	24
5	Dortmund	11	6	3	2	+10	+7.0	21
6	RB Leipzig	10	6	3	1	+8	+2.0	21
7	Mainz	12	6	3	3	+6	+5.3	21
8	Stuttgart	12	6	2	4	+9	+11.2	20
9	M'gladbach	12	6	2	4	+6	+0.5	20
10	Augsburg	11	5	3	3	+2	+3.1	18
11	Union Berlin	11	4	4	3	+0	+2.9	16
12	Wolfsburg	12	3	5	4	+0	+0.9	14
13	Werder Bremen	11	3	4	4	-5	+0.3	13
14	Bochum	11	3	3	5	-6	-3.0	12
15	Hoffenheim	11	3	2	6	-8	-1.8	11
16	Holstein Kiel	12	3	1	8	-13	-7.1	10
17	St Pauli	11	2	3	6	-5	-0.5	9
18	Heidenheim	11	2	1	8	-11	-4.6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	7	3	1	+18	+12.5	24
2	Leverkusen	11	6	5	0	+10	+7.6	23
3	Wolfsburg	11	6	2	3	+9	-2.1	20
4	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+5	+0.2	18
5	Mainz	11	5	2	4	+7	-3.9	17
6	Werder Bremen	12	5	2	5	-7	-3.3	17
7	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	-1	-8.3	16
8	Stuttgart	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.2	15
9	M'gladbach	11	4	2	5	-6	-5.9	14
10	Freiburg	12	4	2	6	-13	-3.7	14
11	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-10	-11.3	13
12	St Pauli	12	4	0	8	-4	-6.3	12
13	Hoffenheim	11	2	4	5	-8	-8.5	10
14	Union Berlin	11	2	2	7	-8	-4.7	8
15	Dortmund	11	2	2	7	-11	-2.2	8
16	Heidenheim	11	2	1	8	-9	-4.6	7
17	Holstein Kiel	11	0	3	8	-12	-9.1	3
18	Bochum	12	0	3	9	-19	-14.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.