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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Hoffenheim

S T U S T

0–4

Full-time

Union Berlin

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

2,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 23%

20%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 58%

70%

45%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,06 xG 2,86

65% Possession 35%

16 Shots 22

4 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 15. · Union Berlin 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	21	17	3	1	+46	+40.1	54
2	Leverkusen	20	13	6	1	+22	+16.4	45
3	Ein Frankfurt	20	11	5	4	+18	+8.3	38
4	RB Leipzig	20	9	6	5	+5	-7.5	33
5	Stuttgart	20	9	5	6	+7	+9.9	32
6	Mainz	20	9	4	7	+9	-1.5	31
7	M'gladbach	20	9	3	8	+2	-3.5	30
8	Werder Bremen	21	8	6	7	-5	-2.1	30
9	Freiburg	20	9	3	8	-9	-1.4	30
10	Wolfsburg	20	8	5	7	+8	-2.0	29
11	Dortmund	20	8	5	7	+2	+4.1	29
12	Augsburg	20	7	5	8	-11	-7.1	26
13	St Pauli	20	6	3	11	-4	-4.3	21
14	Union Berlin	20	5	6	9	-11	-3.5	21
15	Hoffenheim	20	4	6	10	-14	-8.7	18
16	Heidenheim	20	4	2	14	-17	-7.3	14
17	Holstein Kiel	20	3	3	14	-21	-13.2	12
18	Bochum	20	2	4	14	-27	-16.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	10	1	0	+28	+25.5	31
2	Leverkusen	11	8	2	1	+14	+11.2	26
3	Ein Frankfurt	10	6	3	1	+13	+9.8	21
4	Dortmund	10	6	3	1	+11	+6.0	21
5	Stuttgart	11	6	2	3	+10	+12.0	20
6	M'gladbach	10	6	1	3	+9	+2.5	19
7	Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+5	+3.5	19
8	RB Leipzig	9	5	3	1	+6	+1.0	18
9	Mainz	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.8	17
10	Augsburg	10	5	2	3	+2	+3.3	17
11	Union Berlin	10	4	4	2	+1	+3.0	16
12	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	-3	+0.6	13
13	Wolfsburg	10	3	3	4	+0	+0.9	12
14	Hoffenheim	10	3	2	5	-4	+0.0	11
15	St Pauli	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.6	9
16	Bochum	10	2	3	5	-8	-3.3	9
17	Holstein Kiel	10	3	0	7	-11	-5.3	9
18	Heidenheim	10	2	1	7	-9	-3.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	7	2	1	+18	+14.6	23
2	Leverkusen	9	5	4	0	+8	+5.2	19
3	Wolfsburg	10	5	2	3	+8	-2.9	17
4	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+5	-1.5	17
5	Werder Bremen	11	5	2	4	-2	-2.7	17
6	RB Leipzig	11	4	3	4	-1	-8.6	15
7	Mainz	10	4	2	4	+5	-5.3	14
8	St Pauli	10	4	0	6	+0	-4.9	12
9	Stuttgart	9	3	3	3	-3	-2.2	12
10	M'gladbach	10	3	2	5	-7	-6.0	11
11	Freiburg	11	3	2	6	-14	-4.8	11
12	Augsburg	10	2	3	5	-13	-10.5	9
13	Dortmund	10	2	2	6	-9	-1.9	8
14	Heidenheim	10	2	1	7	-8	-4.2	7
15	Hoffenheim	10	1	4	5	-10	-8.7	7
16	Union Berlin	10	1	2	7	-12	-6.5	5
17	Holstein Kiel	10	0	3	7	-10	-8.0	3
18	Bochum	10	0	1	9	-19	-13.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.