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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Stuttgart

T S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Heidenheim

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

60%

20%

Points per game

1,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,4

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,99 xG 0,38

64% Possession 36%

18 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 7. · Heidenheim 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	6	0	0	+22	+13.5	18
2	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+8	+5.1	14
3	RB Leipzig	6	4	1	1	+0	+2.1	13
4	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+4	+3.9	11
5	FC Koln	6	3	1	2	+2	-1.4	10
6	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	0	3	+1	+0.9	9
7	Stuttgart	5	3	0	2	+1	+1.3	9
8	Freiburg	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.0	7
9	St Pauli	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.2	7
10	Hoffenheim	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.1	7
11	Werder Bremen	6	2	1	3	-5	-4.3	7
12	Union Berlin	6	2	1	3	-5	-5.0	7
13	Augsburg	6	2	0	4	-2	-7.4	6
14	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.1	5
15	Hamburg	5	1	2	2	-6	-4.7	5
16	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.0	4
17	Heidenheim	5	1	0	4	-6	-4.3	3
18	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-7	-0.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+15	+6.2	9
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
3	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.5	7
4	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.8	6
5	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
6	St Pauli	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
7	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
8	Union Berlin	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.3	4
9	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.4	4
10	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.4	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
12	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
13	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-2	-4.6	3
14	Heidenheim	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.7	3
15	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.8	2
16	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
17	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0
18	Hoffenheim	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+7	+7.3	9
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.6	7
3	Hoffenheim	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.1	7
4	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
5	RB Leipzig	4	2	1	1	-4	-0.7	7
6	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
7	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.7	4
8	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
9	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.8	3
10	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
11	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.9	3
12	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
13	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.2	3
14	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.6	3
15	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.8	3
16	Hamburg	3	0	2	1	-5	-2.9	2
17	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
18	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.