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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Nobre

Rio Ave

U T T U U

3–0

Full-time

Tondela

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 7%

14%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

71%

29%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,1

0,6

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,27 xG 0,75

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 15

7 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Rio Ave 16. · Tondela 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+18	+11.6	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+15	+13.1	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+9	+7.9	17
4	Gil Vicente	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.3	16
5	Moreirense	8	5	0	3	+1	-3.4	15
6	Famalicao	8	3	4	1	+4	+3.4	13
7	Guimaraes	8	3	2	3	-3	-1.2	11
8	Alverca	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.3	10
9	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.8	10
10	Sp Braga	7	2	3	2	+4	+2.6	9
11	Arouca	8	2	3	3	-9	-9.9	9
12	Santa Clara	8	2	2	4	-4	+1.2	8
13	Casa Pia	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.6	8
14	Estrela	8	1	4	3	-2	-0.6	7
15	Estoril	8	1	3	4	-3	-5.4	6
16	Rio Ave	7	0	5	2	-5	-6.5	5
17	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-7	-3.6	5
18	AVS	8	0	1	7	-15	-6.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.1	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
3	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
4	Benfica	4	2	2	0	+4	+5.4	8
5	Guimaraes	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.5	8
6	Sp Lisbon	3	2	0	1	+8	+6.5	6
7	Alverca	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.4	6
8	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.4	5
9	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-4	-6.0	5
10	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.4	4
11	Estrela	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.1	4
12	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
13	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
14	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	+0.2	3
15	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
16	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
17	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.4	2
18	AVS	4	0	0	4	-8	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.3	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+6.6	12
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
4	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
5	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.0	7
6	Nacional	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
7	Casa Pia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
8	Sp Braga	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.2	5
9	Alverca	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.6	4
10	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.2	4
11	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
12	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.2	3
13	Estrela	4	0	3	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
15	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.8	3
16	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.4	3
17	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.5	2
18	AVS	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.