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Serie A

Referee: Andrea Colombo

Fiorentina

U T T U S

1–2

Full-time

Roma

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

80%

Points per game

0,6

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 20%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

60%

Average goals

1,8

1,2

Scored

0,6

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,10 xG 1,35

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 17. · Roma 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	0	2	+9	+8.3	12
2	Milan	5	4	0	1	+6	+3.0	12
3	Napoli	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.2	12
4	Roma	5	4	0	1	+4	+1.4	12
5	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.7	11
6	Atalanta	6	2	4	0	+6	+2.7	10
7	Como	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.7	9
8	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	+0	-2.6	9
9	Cremonese	6	2	3	1	-1	-5.4	9
10	Cagliari	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.8	8
11	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-3	+0.6	8
12	Lazio	6	2	1	3	+3	+0.6	7
13	Bologna	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.8	7
14	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	+0.4	5
15	Lecce	6	1	2	3	-5	-4.3	5
16	Torino	6	1	2	3	-8	-2.5	5
17	Fiorentina	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.7	3
18	Verona	6	0	3	3	-7	-1.5	3
19	Pisa	5	0	2	3	-3	-0.5	2
20	Genoa	5	0	2	3	-5	-0.3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
2	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.3	7
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.5	6
4	Roma	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
5	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
6	Milan	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
7	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.5	6
8	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.0	5
9	Como	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.4	5
10	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.7	4
11	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
12	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
13	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
14	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.4	2
15	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.8	2
16	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.8	1
17	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.4	1
18	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
19	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.2	1
20	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
2	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.7	6
3	Roma	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
4	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.2	6
5	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.3	5
6	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	Como	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.3	4
9	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.5	4
10	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.9	4
11	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
12	Inter	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
13	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.0	3
14	Fiorentina	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
15	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.1	3
16	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
18	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
19	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
20	Verona	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.