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Bundesliga

Referee: T Gerach

Stuttgart

S S S T S

3–3

Full-time

Mainz

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,7

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,85 xG 2,26

64% Possession 36%

28 Shots 9

13 Shots on target 7

8 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 16. · Mainz 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Union Berlin	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
2	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
3	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
4	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
5	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
6	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
7	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
8	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
10	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
13	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
14	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
15	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
16	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
17	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
2	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
3	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
4	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
5	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
6	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
7	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
8	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
9	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
10	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
2	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
3	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
4	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
5	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
6	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
7	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
8	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
9	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.