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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Leeds

T T S T T

2–2

Full-time

Brighton

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 25/23 matches

Win Ø 34%

20%

48%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

52%

61%

Both score Ø 55%

52%

57%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,66 xG 1,89

38% Possession 62%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 18. · Brighton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	26	20	3	3	+34	+7.2	63
2	Man City	26	18	4	4	+41	+10.2	58
3	Man United	25	15	4	6	+6	+0.9	49
4	Tottenham	26	14	3	9	+10	+0.3	45
5	Liverpool	26	12	6	8	+18	+6.2	42
6	Newcastle	24	10	11	3	+18	-0.0	41
7	Fulham	26	11	6	9	+4	-2.6	39
8	Brighton	23	11	5	7	+14	+9.1	38
9	Brentford	24	9	11	4	+8	+2.3	38
10	Chelsea	25	9	7	9	-1	+1.8	34
11	Aston Villa	25	10	4	11	-7	-4.7	34
12	Crystal Palace	25	6	9	10	-11	-5.6	27
13	Wolves	26	7	6	13	-16	-4.1	27
14	Nott'm Forest	25	6	8	11	-24	-5.5	26
15	Leicester	25	7	3	15	-7	-2.9	24
16	Bournemouth	26	6	6	14	-26	-4.7	24
17	West Ham	25	6	5	14	-10	-0.3	23
18	Leeds	25	5	7	13	-11	-0.9	22
19	Everton	26	5	7	14	-19	-2.8	22
20	Southampton	25	6	3	16	-21	-4.0	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	11	1	1	+30	+7.5	34
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+18	+4.6	32
3	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+25	+5.4	30
4	Man United	12	9	2	1	+16	+4.9	29
5	Tottenham	13	9	0	4	+11	+1.6	27
6	Brentford	13	7	5	1	+14	+2.0	26
7	Newcastle	12	6	5	1	+11	+0.2	23
8	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+4	+0.6	22
9	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.1	21
10	Brighton	12	6	2	4	+10	+6.6	20
11	Nott'm Forest	13	5	5	3	+2	-2.8	20
12	Aston Villa	13	6	2	5	+1	-2.6	20
13	West Ham	12	5	2	5	+3	+4.2	17
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	5	4	-5	-4.1	17
15	Wolves	13	5	2	6	-5	-0.4	17
16	Leeds	12	4	4	4	+0	+1.3	16
17	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.4	16
18	Everton	13	4	2	7	-5	+1.5	14
19	Leicester	12	3	3	6	+1	-1.5	12
20	Southampton	12	2	3	7	-8	-1.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	10	1	2	+16	+2.6	31
2	Man City	13	7	3	3	+11	+2.7	24
3	Man United	13	6	2	5	-10	-4.0	20
4	Newcastle	12	4	6	2	+7	-0.2	18
5	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.6	18
6	Tottenham	13	5	3	5	-1	-1.3	18
7	Fulham	13	5	2	6	+0	-3.2	17
8	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-8	-2.1	14
9	Chelsea	13	3	4	6	-7	-0.3	13
10	Brentford	11	2	6	3	-6	+0.4	12
11	Liverpool	13	3	3	7	-7	+0.8	12
12	Leicester	13	4	0	9	-8	-1.4	12
13	Southampton	13	4	0	9	-13	-3.0	12
14	Crystal Palace	12	2	4	6	-6	-1.5	10
15	Wolves	13	2	4	7	-11	-3.7	10
16	Everton	13	1	5	7	-14	-4.3	8
17	Bournemouth	13	2	2	9	-23	-2.4	8
18	Leeds	13	1	3	9	-11	-2.2	6
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	12	1	3	8	-26	-2.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.