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Bundesliga

Referee: M Jöllenbeck

RB Leipzig

T S U S T

3–0

Full-time

M'gladbach

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 44%

52%

35%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

74%

70%

Both score Ø 65%

65%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,55 xG 1,60

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 0

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · M'gladbach 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	23	14	7	2	+44	+6.0	49
2	Dortmund	23	16	1	6	+19	+5.6	49
3	Union Berlin	23	13	5	5	+8	+0.4	44
4	RB Leipzig	23	12	6	5	+17	+5.6	42
5	Freiburg	23	12	6	5	+3	-1.9	42
6	Ein Frankfurt	23	11	6	6	+12	-3.3	39
7	Mainz	23	10	5	8	+4	+1.3	35
8	Wolfsburg	23	9	7	7	+11	+3.8	34
9	Leverkusen	23	9	4	10	+3	+6.6	31
10	M'gladbach	23	8	6	9	-1	-2.2	30
11	Werder Bremen	23	9	3	11	-8	-4.1	30
12	FC Koln	24	6	9	9	-6	+0.6	27
13	Augsburg	23	8	3	12	-11	-2.1	27
14	Bochum	24	7	1	16	-30	-3.2	22
15	Hertha	23	5	5	13	-16	-5.5	20
16	Stuttgart	23	4	7	12	-12	-1.0	19
17	Hoffenheim	23	5	4	14	-13	-5.3	19
18	Schalke 04	23	4	7	12	-24	-1.1	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	11	9	1	1	+19	+3.2	28
2	RB Leipzig	11	8	2	1	+15	-0.6	26
3	Bayern Munich	11	7	4	0	+26	+8.2	25
4	Union Berlin	11	7	4	0	+11	+1.6	25
5	Freiburg	11	7	3	1	+10	+1.4	24
6	M'gladbach	12	7	2	3	+10	+1.5	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	1	3	+13	+2.3	22
8	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+8	+2.2	19
9	FC Koln	12	5	3	4	+7	+2.9	18
10	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	+8	+3.5	17
11	Augsburg	12	5	2	5	-4	+0.1	17
12	Wolfsburg	11	4	4	3	+6	+2.7	16
13	Werder Bremen	12	5	1	6	+2	-0.2	16
14	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-1	-1.1	16
15	Bochum	11	5	1	5	-4	+1.6	16
16	Stuttgart	12	4	3	5	+1	+1.2	15
17	Schalke 04	12	3	3	6	-14	-0.7	12
18	Hoffenheim	12	3	2	7	-7	-0.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	7	3	2	+18	-2.2	24
2	Dortmund	12	7	0	5	+0	+2.3	21
3	Union Berlin	12	6	1	5	-3	-1.2	19
4	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+5	+1.1	18
5	Freiburg	12	5	3	4	-7	-3.4	18
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	4	5	3	-1	-5.7	17
7	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	+2	+6.2	16
8	Mainz	11	5	1	5	-4	-0.9	16
9	Leverkusen	11	4	2	5	-5	+3.1	14
10	Werder Bremen	11	4	2	5	-10	-3.9	14
11	Augsburg	11	3	1	7	-7	-2.2	10
12	FC Koln	12	1	6	5	-13	-2.3	9
13	Hoffenheim	11	2	2	7	-6	-5.0	8
14	Schalke 04	11	1	4	6	-10	-0.4	7
15	M'gladbach	11	1	4	6	-11	-3.8	7
16	Bochum	13	2	0	11	-26	-4.8	6
17	Stuttgart	11	0	4	7	-13	-2.2	4
18	Hertha	11	1	1	9	-15	-4.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.