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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Elversberg

T S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S S U S

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elversberg Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,8

4,2

Scored

3,2

3,7

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+3,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

6,0

3,0

Scored

3,5

2,5

Conceded

2,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

28% Possession 72%

5 Shots 28

1 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 12

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Elversberg 5. · Bayern Munich 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+9	+1.8	9
2	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	+0.6	9
3	Augsburg	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.6	7
4	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+6	+2.9	6
5	Elversberg	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
6	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.3	4
7	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+3	+0.6	4
8	Mainz	3	1	1	1	+3	+0.5	4
9	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.4	4
10	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.8	4
11	Schalke 04	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.6	4
12	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.1	4
13	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
14	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.3	3
15	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.5	1
16	Union Berlin	3	0	1	2	-6	+0.4	1
17	M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	-9	-2.9	0
18	Hamburg	3	0	0	3	-12	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+8	+1.8	6
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+8	+2.9	6
3	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.6	6
4	Augsburg	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.6	4
5	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
6	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.3	3
7	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
12	Schalke 04	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
13	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.4	1
14	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
15	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
16	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
17	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
18	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.4	4
2	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+5	–	3
3	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
4	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
5	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
6	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
7	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
8	Bayern Munich	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
9	Leverkusen	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.6	1
10	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
11	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
12	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
13	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
14	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
15	Union Berlin	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
16	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.3	0
17	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	-7	-0.6	0
18	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-8	-2.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.