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La Liga

Referee: C Muniz

Celta

U T T U U

1–1

Full-time

Malaga

S T U T U

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Malaga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,3

1,8

Scored

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,6

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 23%

20%

25%

Both score Ø 33%

40%

25%

Average goals

1,4

2,0

Scored

0,4

0,3

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,90 xG 0,43

46% Possession 54%

17 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 5

6 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 16. · Malaga 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+15	+9.4	12
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+10	+7.5	12
3	Alaves	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.7	10
4	Sevilla	5	3	1	1	+2	-0.6	10
5	Betis	4	3	0	1	+0	-1.4	9
6	La Coruna	4	2	2	0	+3	-1.7	8
7	Espanol	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.4	7
8	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+1	-1.1	7
9	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.0	7
10	Santander	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.0	7
11	Sociedad	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.4	7
12	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	-3	+2.9	7
13	Levante	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.2	5
14	Getafe	4	1	1	2	-3	-3.1	4
15	Vallecano	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.0	4
16	Celta	5	0	3	2	-3	-4.0	3
17	Villarreal	4	0	2	2	-2	+2.2	2
18	Malaga	4	0	2	2	-6	-1.9	2
19	Elche	5	0	2	3	-7	-3.5	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-9	+0.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+10	+5.9	9
2	Alaves	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.1	9
3	Santander	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.9	7
4	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.7	6
5	Betis	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.1	6
6	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
7	Espanol	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.4	4
8	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.0	4
9	La Coruna	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
10	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.8	4
11	Vallecano	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.6	4
12	Sociedad	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
13	Getafe	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
14	Osasuna	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
15	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
16	Malaga	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.8	2
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	-6	+0.3	1
18	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
19	Celta	2	0	0	2	-3	-4.5	0
20	Elche	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+10	+3.7	6
2	Sevilla	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
3	La Coruna	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.8	4
4	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.1	3
5	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
6	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
7	Celta	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.5	3
8	Ath Madrid	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
9	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	-2	+2.5	3
10	Betis	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.2	3
11	Sociedad	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.4	3
12	Elche	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.2	2
13	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.2	2
14	Levante	3	0	2	1	-3	-0.7	2
15	Alaves	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.6	1
16	Santander	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.1	0
17	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.0	0
18	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0
19	Malaga	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.7	0
20	Vallecano	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.