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Bundesliga
Sturm Graz
S T S U T
2–1
Full-time
LASK
T S S S T
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz LASK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
17%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,7
Scored
0,8
2,5
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 70%
40%
100%
Points per game
1,6
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
20%
80%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
2,2
3,4
Scored
1,2
3,0
Conceded
1,0
0,4
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+2,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%
14 Shots 26
7 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 6
2 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sturm Graz 4. · LASK 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 LASK 5 5 0 0 +13 +8.6 15
2 SK Rapid 6 5 0 1 +11 +6.6 15
3 Salzburg 6 4 2 0 +11 +7.5 14
4 Sturm Graz 5 2 2 1 +1 +2.4 8
5 Tirol 6 2 2 2 +0 -1.7 8
6 Hartberg 6 2 1 3 -3 -4.3 7
7 Grazer AK 6 2 1 3 -10 -3.3 7
8 Austria Vienna 6 2 0 4 -6 -6.2 6
9 Wolfsberger AC 6 1 2 3 -3 -4.1 5
10 Ried 6 1 2 3 -4 -0.6 5
11 A. Lustenau 6 1 2 3 -5 -3.2 5
12 Altach 6 1 0 5 -5 -1.6 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

22. Apr -26 Sturm Graz – LASK 1–1 19. Apr -26 LASK – Sturm Graz 1–1 23. Nov -25 Sturm Graz – LASK 1–3 1. Aug -25 LASK – Sturm Graz 0–2 16. Mar -25 Sturm Graz – LASK 4–2

Match report

Sturm Graz LASK
13′
ℹ️ George Bello
VAR: Penalty cancelled
Jurgen Heil 🟨
13′
1–0 Gizo Mamageishvili ⚽
Simon Seidl
34′
Half-time 1–1
48′
⚽ Krystof Danek 1–1
Oumar Diakité 🔁
↦ Seedy Jatta
50′
2–1 Oumar Diakité ⚽
Arjan Malić
59′
60′
🔁 Sasa Kalajdzic
↦ Christoph Lang
60′
🔁 Robert Ljubicic
↦ Krystof Danek
Otar Kiteishvili 🔁
↦ Gizo Mamageishvili
61′
Filip Rozga Kucharczyk 🔁
↦ Simon Seidl
61′
76′
🟨 Melayro Bogarde
77′
🔁 Alessandro Schöpf
↦ Melayro Bogarde
Luca Weinhandl 🔁
↦ Jon Gorenc Stanković
77′
82′
🔁 Florian Flecker
↦ Kasper Jorgensen
Otar Kiteishvili 🟨
85′
Filip Rozga Kucharczyk 🟨
85′
85′
🟨 Sascha Horvath
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-4-2
53 D. Khudyakov G
23 A. Malic D
5 A. Vallci D
2 J. Quarshie D
28 J. Heil D
43 Jacob Peter Hödl M
19 S. Seidl M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
78 V. Matoshi M
15 G. Mamageishvili F
20 S. Jatta F
Bench (9)
10 O. Kiteishvili
30 P. Koller
21 P. Petrović
8 F. Rózga
39 Luca Weinhandl
22 A. Helac
14 O. Diakité
26 B. Beganović
27 L. Balbo

Coach: F. Ingolitsch

LASK

3-4-1-2
1 L. Jungwirth G
4 X. Mbuyamba D
43 Alemão D
16 A. Andrade D
20 K. Jørgensen M
6 M. Bogarde M
30 S. Horvath M
2 G. Bello M
9 K. Daněk M
8 M. Usor F
27 C. Lang F
Bench (9)
33 T. Schützenauer
3 M. Freckleton
23 Daniel Elfadli
25 Y. Dibango
29 F. Flecker
18 A. Schöpf
10 R. Ljubičić
11 S. Kalajdzic
45 N. Kane

Coach: D. Kühbauer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,44
🔒
U
3,92
🔒
B
1,90
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,13
🔒
U1,5
5,40
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,47
🔒
U2,5
2,60
🔒
O3,5
2,19
🔒
U3,5 ✓
1,65
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,44
🔒
BLS nei
2,60
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.