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Referee: U Schnyder

U S U S U

2–4

Full-time

S S U T T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Basel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,2

xG conceded Pro

This season — Super League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

71%

71%

Both score Ø 71%

71%

71%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

xG conceded Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

46% Possession 54%

19 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

10 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luzern 7. · Basel 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	7	6	1	0	+13	+2.5	19
2	Young Boys	8	4	4	0	+12	+5.5	16
3	Sion	7	5	0	2	+6	+4.2	15
4	Basel	7	3	1	3	+0	-0.5	10
5	St. Gallen	7	3	1	3	-2	+4.2	10
6	Zurich	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.0	10
7	Luzern	7	2	3	2	-3	-2.8	9
8	Grasshoppers	7	2	2	3	-4	+3.1	8
9	Thun	7	2	1	4	-7	-5.2	7
10	Vaduz	8	2	0	6	-2	-3.6	6
11	Lausanne	7	1	3	3	-3	-3.4	6
12	Servette	6	1	1	4	-4	+1.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	4	3	1	0	+7	+2.0	10
2	Sion	4	3	0	1	+4	+4.8	9
3	Young Boys	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.5	8
4	Vaduz	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.3	6
5	Luzern	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.9	6
6	Zurich	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
7	Grasshoppers	3	1	1	1	-1	+3.5	4
8	Servette	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.5	4
9	St. Gallen	4	1	1	2	-3	+4.0	4
10	Basel	4	1	0	3	-2	-1.1	3
11	Lausanne	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.1	2
12	Thun	3	0	1	2	-7	-2.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	3	3	0	0	+6	+0.5	9
2	Young Boys	4	2	2	0	+8	+2.0	8
3	Basel	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.6	7
4	Sion	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
5	St. Gallen	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.2	6
6	Thun	4	2	0	2	+0	-3.2	6
7	Lausanne	4	1	1	2	-2	-3.2	4
8	Grasshoppers	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.5	4
9	Zurich	4	1	1	2	-5	-4.8	4
10	Luzern	4	0	3	1	-3	-5.7	3
11	Servette	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.6	0
12	Vaduz	5	0	0	5	-6	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

22. Feb -26 Luzern – Basel 4–2 17. Dec -25 Luzern – Basel 1–2 28. Sep -25 Basel – Luzern 1–2 24. May -25 Basel – Luzern 4–0 9. Mar -25 Luzern – Basel 1–1

Match report

Luzern Basel

1–0 Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb ⚽

Rúben Dantas Fernandes

1′

4′

⚽ Žan Celar 1–1

Kazeem Olaigbe

42′

⚽ Philip Otele 1–2

Xherdan Shaqiri

Half-time 1–2

Bung Hua Freimann 🟨

52′

56′

⚽ Xherdan Shaqiri 1–3

Kazeem Olaigbe

57′

🟨 Xherdan Shaqiri

58′

🟨 Philip Otele

Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga 🔁

↦ Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb

60′

Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira 🔁

↦ Mio Zimmermann

60′

Aurelio Oehlers 🔁

↦ Tyron Owusu

60′

61′

🔁 Aaron Malouda

↦ Philip Otele

61′

🔁 Clément Michelin

↦ Kevin Ruegg

66′

⚽ Xherdan Shaqiri 1–4

Kazeem Olaigbe

72′

🔁 giacomo koloto

↦ Xherdan Shaqiri

72′

🔁 Ludwig Thorell

↦ Jonas harder

Nando Toggenburger 🔁

↦ Daniel Mikołajewski

72′

Lars Villiger 🔁

↦ Matteo Di Giusto

83′

2–4 Lars Villiger ⚽

Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga

84′

85′

🔁 Becir Omeragic

↦ Žan Celar

Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Luzern

4-4-2

30

K. Letica G

22

R. Fernandes D

13

B. Freimann D

46

B. Freimann D

14

A. Cigaņiks D

24

T. Owusu M

80

Mio Zimmermann M

6

L. Bertone M

11

M. Di Giusto M

19

D. Mikołajewski F

16

O. tshikomb F

Bench (9)

29 Levin Winkler

5 S. Knežević

18 Bongeli Faveurdi Beenga

21 L. Lüthi

7 A. Oehlers

10 Lucas Ferreira

1 S. Simoni

15 N. Toggenburger

27 L. Villiger

Coach: J. Portmann

Basel

4-2-3-1

13

M. Salvi G

6

K. Tsunemoto D

24

F. Daniliuc D

55

A. Victory D

27

K. Rüegg D

44

J. Harder M

5

Metinho M

11

K. Olaigbe M

10

X. Shaqiri M

7

P. Otele M

9

Ž. Celar F

Bench (9)

49 Renato Widmer DâAutilia

29 M. Cissé

41 J. Doucoure

37 G. Koloto

8 L. Małachowski Thorell

17 A. Malouda

22 C. Michelin

4 B. Omeragić

3 N. Vouilloz

Coach: Luigi Nocentini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H

2,07

🔒

Pinnacle 2,14 Betano 2,12 SBO 2,09 1xBet 2,09 Marathonbet 2,07 Bet365 2,05 Betfair 2,05 BetVictor 2,05 William Hill 2,05

U

3,80

🔒

Pinnacle 4,10 Betfair 4,00 1xBet 3,88 Marathonbet 3,88 BetVictor 3,80 Bet365 3,75 Betano 3,75 William Hill 3,70 SBO 3,34

B ✓

3,00

🔒

Bet365 3,20 Pinnacle 3,11 1xBet 3,02 Marathonbet 3,02 Betano 3,00 Betfair 3,00 BetVictor 2,90 William Hill 2,90 SBO 2,67

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,10

🔒

U1,5

5,75

🔒

O2,5 ✓

1,40

🔒

U2,5

2,70

🔒

O3,5 ✓

2,05

🔒

U3,5

1,74

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

1,37

🔒

BLS nei

2,80

🔒

Recent matches

5. Sep SL 2 weeks ago

2. Sep SL 2 weeks ago

29. Aug SL 3 weeks ago

22. Aug SL 1 month ago

9. Aug SL 1 month ago

Referee

U Schnyder · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

4,2 / match

Below average

⚽ Free kicks

22,3 / match

Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.