Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Newcastle
Tottenham
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 5–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
32 | 23 | 6 | 3 | +43 | +12.3 | 75 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
30 | 22 | 4 | 4 | +50 | +16.9 | 70 |
| 3 |
Man United
|
30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | +9 | +3.1 | 59 |
| 4 |
Newcastle
|
30 | 15 | 11 | 4 | +24 | +5.7 | 56 |
| 5 |
Tottenham
|
31 | 16 | 5 | 10 | +12 | +1.4 | 53 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
|
32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | +4 | -2.2 | 51 |
| 7 |
Liverpool
|
31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +21 | +7.7 | 50 |
| 8 |
Brighton
|
29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | +17 | +15.6 | 49 |
| 9 |
Fulham
|
31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | +2 | -5.1 | 45 |
| 10 |
Brentford
|
32 | 10 | 14 | 8 | +5 | +3.4 | 44 |
| 11 |
Chelsea
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -3 | +3.2 | 39 |
| 12 |
Crystal Palace
|
32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -9 | -3.1 | 37 |
| 13 |
Wolves
|
32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -17 | -7.0 | 34 |
| 14 |
Bournemouth
|
31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | -28 | -5.6 | 33 |
| 15 |
West Ham
|
30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -12 | -1.4 | 31 |
| 16 |
Leeds
|
32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -21 | -8.7 | 29 |
| 17 |
Leicester
|
32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | -13 | -3.6 | 28 |
| 18 |
Everton
|
32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -22 | -8.5 | 28 |
| 19 |
Nott'm Forest
|
32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -33 | -14.1 | 27 |
| 20 |
Southampton
|
32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | -29 | -9.9 | 24 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
N. Pope
G
K. Trippier
D
F. Schär
D
S. Botman
D
S. Longstaff
M
Bruno Guimarães
M
J. Willock
M
J. Murphy
F
A. Isak
F
Coach: E. Howe
Pedro Porro
D
C. Romero
D
E. Dier
D
I. Perišić
D
P. Sarr
M
O. Skipp
M
P. Højbjerg
M
H. Kane
F
Coach: C. Stellini
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Brentford
Newcastle
West Ham
Newcastle
Newcastle
Man United
Nott'm Forest
Newcastle
D Coote · 118 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.