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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Díaz de Mera

Ath Bilbao

S T S S T

2–3

Full-time

Girona

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Girona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 37%

41%

32%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

36%

73%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,58 xG 1,25

60% Possession 40%

17 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 8

5 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 7. · Girona 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	22	19	2	1	+38	+4.7	59
2	Real Madrid	23	16	4	3	+29	+9.3	52
3	Sociedad	23	13	4	6	+9	+0.7	43
4	Ath Madrid	23	12	6	5	+14	+2.8	42
5	Betis	23	12	4	7	+7	+5.0	40
6	Vallecano	23	9	7	7	+4	+0.8	34
7	Ath Bilbao	22	9	5	8	+8	-0.8	32
8	Villarreal	22	9	4	9	+2	-0.8	31
9	Mallorca	23	9	4	10	-3	-3.7	31
10	Osasuna	22	8	6	8	-2	-4.6	30
11	Girona	22	7	6	9	+0	-0.3	27
12	Espanol	23	6	9	8	-5	+0.7	27
13	Sevilla	22	6	7	9	-6	+2.7	25
14	Cadiz	23	6	7	10	-17	-0.5	25
15	Celta	22	6	6	10	-11	-0.9	24
16	Valladolid	22	7	3	12	-14	-3.7	24
17	Valencia	23	6	5	12	+0	-3.0	23
18	Getafe	22	5	7	10	-9	-1.1	22
19	Almeria	22	6	4	12	-13	-0.5	22
20	Elche	23	1	6	16	-31	-6.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	9	2	0	+23	+3.0	29
2	Real Madrid	11	7	4	0	+15	+7.9	25
3	Girona	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.5	21
4	Ath Bilbao	11	6	2	3	+9	+0.4	20
5	Betis	11	6	2	3	+6	+1.7	20
6	Mallorca	11	6	2	3	+4	+0.4	20
7	Villarreal	10	6	1	3	+6	+1.7	19
8	Almeria	11	6	1	4	+4	+1.0	19
9	Ath Madrid	11	5	3	3	+6	+2.8	18
10	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+4	-0.1	18
11	Sociedad	11	5	3	3	+1	+0.3	18
12	Osasuna	11	6	0	5	+1	-2.2	18
13	Valencia	12	5	2	5	+7	+0.6	17
14	Valladolid	11	5	2	4	+0	+1.0	17
15	Cadiz	12	4	5	3	-3	+2.1	17
16	Sevilla	11	4	3	4	+0	+6.1	15
17	Celta	11	3	4	4	-1	+0.5	13
18	Getafe	12	3	4	5	-3	-2.0	13
19	Espanol	12	3	4	5	-4	+2.5	13
20	Elche	12	1	3	8	-10	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	+15	+1.7	30
2	Real Madrid	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.4	27
3	Sociedad	12	8	1	3	+8	+0.4	25
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.0	24
5	Betis	12	6	2	4	+1	+3.3	20
6	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
7	Espanol	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.8	14
8	Ath Bilbao	11	3	3	5	-1	-1.2	12
9	Osasuna	11	2	6	3	-3	-2.4	12
10	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	-2.5	12
11	Mallorca	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.1	11
12	Celta	11	3	2	6	-10	-1.4	11
13	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.4	10
14	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.8	9
15	Cadiz	11	2	2	7	-14	-2.7	8
16	Valladolid	11	2	1	8	-14	-4.8	7
17	Girona	10	1	3	6	-6	-2.8	6
18	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-7	-3.6	6
19	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-1.5	3
20	Elche	11	0	3	8	-21	-6.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.