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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martínez

Ath Madrid

S T S U S

1–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 48%

52%

43%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

33%

52%

Both score Ø 43%

48%

38%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,15 xG 0,78

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

7 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Ath Bilbao 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	21	18	2	1	+36	+3.9	56
2	Real Madrid	22	16	3	3	+29	+8.0	51
3	Sociedad	22	13	4	5	+10	+0.5	43
4	Ath Madrid	21	11	5	5	+13	+3.7	38
5	Betis	22	11	4	7	+6	+1.8	37
6	Vallecano	22	9	7	6	+5	+1.0	34
7	Ath Bilbao	21	9	5	7	+9	-0.5	32
8	Villarreal	22	9	4	9	+2	-0.8	31
9	Mallorca	22	9	4	9	-2	-3.1	31
10	Osasuna	22	8	6	8	-2	-4.6	30
11	Girona	22	7	6	9	+0	-0.3	27
12	Sevilla	22	6	7	9	-6	+2.7	25
13	Espanol	22	5	9	8	-6	-0.0	24
14	Celta	22	6	6	10	-11	-0.9	24
15	Valladolid	22	7	3	12	-14	-3.7	24
16	Almeria	22	6	4	12	-13	-0.5	22
17	Cadiz	21	5	7	9	-16	+0.1	22
18	Valencia	21	5	5	11	+0	-2.8	20
19	Getafe	21	4	7	10	-10	-1.1	19
20	Elche	22	1	6	15	-30	-3.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	8	2	0	+21	+2.2	26
2	Real Madrid	10	7	3	0	+15	+6.5	24
3	Girona	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.5	21
4	Ath Bilbao	11	6	2	3	+9	+0.4	20
5	Betis	11	6	2	3	+6	+1.7	20
6	Mallorca	11	6	2	3	+4	+0.4	20
7	Villarreal	10	6	1	3	+6	+1.7	19
8	Almeria	11	6	1	4	+4	+1.0	19
9	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+4	-0.1	18
10	Sociedad	11	5	3	3	+1	+0.3	18
11	Osasuna	11	6	0	5	+1	-2.2	18
12	Valladolid	11	5	2	4	+0	+1.0	17
13	Ath Madrid	10	4	3	3	+5	+2.4	15
14	Sevilla	11	4	3	4	+0	+6.1	15
15	Valencia	11	4	2	5	+6	+0.9	14
16	Cadiz	11	3	5	3	-4	+2.0	14
17	Celta	11	3	4	4	-1	+0.5	13
18	Getafe	11	2	4	5	-4	-2.0	10
19	Espanol	11	2	4	5	-5	+1.9	10
20	Elche	11	1	3	7	-9	+2.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	+15	+1.7	30
2	Real Madrid	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.4	27
3	Sociedad	11	8	1	2	+9	+0.2	25
4	Ath Madrid	11	7	2	2	+8	+1.3	23
5	Betis	11	5	2	4	+0	+0.1	17
6	Vallecano	11	4	4	3	+1	+1.0	16
7	Espanol	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.8	14
8	Ath Bilbao	10	3	3	4	+0	-0.8	12
9	Osasuna	11	2	6	3	-3	-2.4	12
10	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	-2.5	12
11	Mallorca	11	3	2	6	-6	-3.4	11
12	Celta	11	3	2	6	-10	-1.4	11
13	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-6	-3.4	10
14	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.8	9
15	Cadiz	10	2	2	6	-12	-1.9	8
16	Valladolid	11	2	1	8	-14	-4.8	7
17	Girona	10	1	3	6	-6	-2.8	6
18	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-6	-3.6	6
19	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-1.5	3
20	Elche	11	0	3	8	-21	-6.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.