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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Everton

S U T S S

1–2

Full-time

Luton

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 47%

33%

60%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,8

0,6

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,90 xG 0,89

68% Possession 32%

23 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 15. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+13	+9.3	18
2	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+10	+6.2	16
3	Aston Villa	7	5	0	2	+7	+2.5	15
4	Brighton	7	5	0	2	+5	+2.5	15
5	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+8	+1.9	14
6	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+5	+5.9	14
7	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+1	-4.3	10
8	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	+9	+5.8	9
9	Man United	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.4	9
10	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.2	8
11	Fulham	6	2	2	2	-5	-8.0	8
12	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-2	-2.1	7
13	Brentford	6	1	3	2	+0	+3.6	6
14	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+5.2	5
15	Everton	6	1	1	4	-5	+0.7	4
16	Wolves	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.6	4
17	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-5.2	3
18	Luton	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.2	1
19	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-9	-4.7	1
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-12	-11.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+11	+4.3	9
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.5	9
3	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.9	9
4	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.6	9
5	Arsenal	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.2	8
6	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.7	6
7	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
8	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.7	6
9	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.7	4
10	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
12	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.4	3
13	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.1	3
14	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-3.6	3
15	Bournemouth	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.9	2
16	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.0	1
17	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-10	-8.7	1
18	Everton	3	0	0	3	-3	+0.8	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.0	0
20	Burnley	4	0	0	4	-9	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	+7.4	9
2	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+5	+0.8	8
3	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
4	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
5	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
6	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.0	6
7	Aston Villa	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.7	6
8	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.4	5
9	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.6	4
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.8	4
11	Everton	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.1	4
12	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	+5	+2.1	3
13	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
14	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.1	3
15	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.1	3
16	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
17	Chelsea	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.5	1
18	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.3	1
19	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
20	Luton	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.