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La Liga

Referee: Valentín Pizarro

Girona

T S S S U

1–2

Full-time

Villarreal

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 44%

38%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

56%

47%

Both score Ø 58%

68%

47%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,23 xG 1,95

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Girona 7. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	27	4	3	+51	+15.4	85
2	Real Madrid	34	22	5	7	+38	+17.6	71
3	Ath Madrid	34	21	6	7	+33	+15.9	69
4	Sociedad	34	18	8	8	+14	+5.9	62
5	Villarreal	34	17	6	11	+17	+9.5	57
6	Betis	34	16	7	11	+5	+0.8	55
7	Girona	34	13	9	12	+6	-5.1	48
8	Ath Bilbao	34	13	8	13	+6	+3.4	47
9	Osasuna	34	13	8	13	-4	-10.1	47
10	Sevilla	34	13	8	13	-5	+6.1	47
11	Vallecano	34	12	10	12	-4	-4.0	46
12	Mallorca	34	12	8	14	-4	-3.6	44
13	Celta	34	10	9	15	-9	-2.4	39
14	Cadiz	35	9	11	15	-22	-5.0	38
15	Valencia	34	10	7	17	-3	-1.6	37
16	Almeria	34	10	6	18	-18	-8.8	36
17	Valladolid	35	10	5	20	-32	-15.4	35
18	Getafe	34	8	10	16	-13	-4.1	34
19	Espanol	34	7	10	17	-18	-6.8	31
20	Elche	34	4	7	23	-38	-7.8	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	14	3	0	+31	+11.6	45
2	Real Madrid	17	12	4	1	+27	+15.2	40
3	Ath Madrid	17	11	3	3	+22	+13.6	36
4	Villarreal	17	11	2	4	+16	+9.5	35
5	Girona	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.7	33
6	Sociedad	17	9	5	3	+8	+7.5	32
7	Betis	17	9	4	4	+9	+1.5	31
8	Vallecano	17	8	5	4	+6	-0.2	29
9	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+6	+2.3	29
10	Almeria	17	9	2	6	+4	+0.4	29
11	Osasuna	17	9	1	7	+0	-2.0	28
12	Valencia	17	7	4	6	+7	+4.0	25
13	Sevilla	17	7	4	6	+0	+10.5	25
14	Ath Bilbao	17	7	3	7	+7	-0.2	24
15	Cadiz	18	6	6	6	-5	+0.8	24
16	Valladolid	17	7	3	7	-6	-1.6	24
17	Celta	17	6	5	6	+4	+2.7	23
18	Getafe	17	6	5	6	+0	+0.7	23
19	Espanol	17	4	5	8	-8	+2.7	17
20	Elche	17	3	4	10	-11	+1.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+20	+3.8	40
2	Ath Madrid	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.3	33
3	Real Madrid	17	10	1	6	+11	+2.4	31
4	Sociedad	17	9	3	5	+6	-1.6	30
5	Betis	17	7	3	7	-4	-0.7	24
6	Ath Bilbao	17	6	5	6	-1	+3.5	23
7	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	+1	-0.0	22
8	Sevilla	17	6	4	7	-5	-4.4	22
9	Osasuna	17	4	7	6	-4	-8.1	19
10	Vallecano	17	4	5	8	-10	-3.9	17
11	Celta	17	4	4	9	-13	-5.1	16
12	Girona	17	3	6	8	-5	-7.8	15
13	Mallorca	17	4	3	10	-10	-5.9	15
14	Espanol	17	3	5	9	-10	-9.4	14
15	Cadiz	17	3	5	9	-17	-5.8	14
16	Valencia	17	3	3	11	-10	-5.7	12
17	Getafe	17	2	5	10	-13	-4.9	11
18	Valladolid	18	3	2	13	-26	-13.8	11
19	Almeria	17	1	4	12	-22	-9.2	7
20	Elche	17	1	3	13	-27	-9.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.