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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Ath Madrid

S S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Almeria

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Almeria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 14/15 matches

Win Ø 36%

71%

Points per game

2,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

71%

73%

Both score Ø 62%

50%

73%

Average goals

3,1

3,5

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,9

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,17 xG 1,36

57% Possession 43%

13 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 15

4 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Almeria 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	12	3	1	+24	+12.8	39
2	Girona	15	12	2	1	+16	+9.0	38
3	Barcelona	15	10	4	1	+14	+16.1	34
4	Ath Madrid	14	10	1	3	+17	+11.3	31
5	Sociedad	16	8	5	3	+11	+1.9	29
6	Ath Bilbao	15	8	4	3	+12	+9.5	28
7	Betis	16	6	8	2	+2	-0.1	26
8	Las Palmas	16	7	3	6	+1	-5.2	24
9	Getafe	16	5	7	4	-2	-4.3	22
10	Valencia	16	5	4	7	-4	+0.2	19
11	Vallecano	15	4	7	4	-6	-5.8	19
12	Alaves	16	4	4	8	-6	+2.2	16
13	Villarreal	16	4	4	8	-7	-5.0	16
14	Osasuna	15	4	3	8	-8	-6.8	15
15	Mallorca	16	2	8	6	-6	-3.9	14
16	Sevilla	15	2	7	6	-1	-4.6	13
17	Cadiz	15	2	6	7	-10	-10.7	12
18	Celta	15	1	6	8	-10	-0.9	9
19	Granada	15	1	4	10	-16	-12.3	7
20	Almeria	15	0	4	11	-21	-3.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	0	1	+11	+8.5	21
2	Ath Madrid	7	7	0	0	+10	+9.3	21
3	Real Madrid	7	6	1	0	+14	+10.7	19
4	Girona	8	6	1	1	+8	+3.1	19
5	Betis	8	5	3	0	+8	+6.2	18
6	Getafe	8	5	3	0	+5	+1.6	18
7	Ath Bilbao	8	5	2	1	+11	+8.7	17
8	Sociedad	8	5	2	1	+7	+0.3	17
9	Las Palmas	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.2	14
10	Valencia	7	4	1	2	+5	+4.5	13
11	Alaves	8	4	1	3	+0	+5.0	13
12	Sevilla	8	2	4	2	+3	-0.5	10
13	Mallorca	8	1	6	1	+0	-1.1	9
14	Cadiz	7	2	3	2	-1	+2.4	9
15	Villarreal	9	2	1	6	-5	-0.2	7
16	Vallecano	7	1	4	2	-6	-4.7	7
17	Granada	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.7	6
18	Osasuna	8	1	3	4	-5	-1.2	6
19	Celta	8	0	4	4	-7	+2.9	4
20	Almeria	8	0	3	5	-8	+1.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	6	2	1	+10	+2.1	20
2	Girona	7	6	1	0	+8	+5.9	19
3	Barcelona	7	3	4	0	+3	+7.6	13
4	Sociedad	8	3	3	2	+4	+1.6	12
5	Vallecano	8	3	3	2	+0	-1.1	12
6	Ath Bilbao	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.7	11
7	Ath Madrid	7	3	1	3	+7	+1.9	10
8	Las Palmas	9	3	1	5	-3	-5.0	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	3	2	-2	-4.8	9
10	Osasuna	7	3	0	4	-3	-5.5	9
11	Betis	8	1	5	2	-6	-6.3	8
12	Valencia	9	1	3	5	-9	-4.3	6
13	Celta	7	1	2	4	-3	-3.7	5
14	Mallorca	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.8	5
15	Getafe	8	0	4	4	-7	-5.9	4
16	Sevilla	7	0	3	4	-4	-4.1	3
17	Alaves	8	0	3	5	-6	-2.8	3
18	Cadiz	8	0	3	5	-9	-13.1	3
19	Granada	8	0	1	7	-12	-7.6	1
20	Almeria	7	0	1	6	-13	-5.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.