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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Oviedo

S U T S T

0–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oviedo Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

1,0

Scored

0,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,50 xG 2,68

35% Possession 65%

6 Shots 26

3 Shots on target 10

0 Blocked shots 10

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Oviedo 19. · Real Madrid 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.7	6
2	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
3	Espanol	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
4	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
5	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
6	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
7	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
8	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
9	Alaves	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.4	3
10	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
11	Sociedad	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.9	2
12	Elche	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.4	2
13	Ath Madrid	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.0	1
14	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
15	Celta	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.6	1
16	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.0	1
17	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
18	Levante	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.2	0
19	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
20	Girona	2	0	0	2	-7	-5.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.7	6
2	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
3	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
4	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
6	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
9	Valencia	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
10	Ath Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
11	Elche	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
12	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.0	1
13	Levante	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
14	Girona	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.9	0
15	Celta	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.9	3
3	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
4	Espanol	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
5	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
6	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
7	Elche	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
8	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
9	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
10	Levante	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
11	Ath Madrid	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
12	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
13	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
14	Alaves	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
15	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
16	Girona	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.