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Championship

Referee: W Finnie

Swansea

S T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Bristol City

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 40%

38%

41%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 49%

53%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,62 xG 0,75

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 16. · Bristol City 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	32	18	8	6	+30	+25.2	62
2	Millwall	31	16	8	7	+6	+6.7	56
3	Ipswich	30	15	9	6	+22	+24.6	54
4	Middlesbrough	29	16	6	7	+10	+9.3	54
5	Hull	29	15	6	8	+8	-14.0	51
6	Derby	32	13	9	10	+8	-4.1	48
7	Wrexham	32	12	12	8	+5	-2.0	48
8	Preston	33	12	12	9	+3	-10.5	48
9	Bristol City	32	13	8	11	+5	-0.5	47
10	Birmingham	32	12	10	10	+4	+16.2	46
11	Southampton	30	12	9	9	+8	+13.7	45
12	Watford	32	11	12	9	+3	+5.8	45
13	QPR	32	12	8	12	-3	+2.3	44
14	Stoke	32	12	7	13	+5	-8.6	43
15	Sheffield United	32	13	3	16	+0	+10.0	42
16	Swansea	32	12	6	14	-1	-3.4	42
17	Norwich	32	11	6	15	+0	-7.2	39
18	Charlton	32	10	9	13	-10	-11.8	39
19	Leicester	32	10	8	14	-7	-13.5	38
20	Blackburn	33	10	8	15	-10	+3.3	38
21	Portsmouth	31	9	9	13	-10	-1.7	36
22	West Brom	32	9	7	16	-15	+3.0	34
23	Oxford	32	6	10	16	-16	-9.7	28
24	Sheffield Weds	32	1	8	23	-45	-33.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	16	12	3	1	+22	+14.9	39
2	Ipswich	16	10	5	1	+18	+20.1	35
3	Birmingham	16	8	7	1	+15	+18.1	31
4	Middlesbrough	14	9	3	2	+10	+4.0	30
5	Millwall	15	9	3	3	+6	+8.3	30
6	Watford	16	8	5	3	+7	+5.3	29
7	Swansea	16	8	4	4	+6	+0.7	28
8	Preston	17	7	6	4	+4	-1.4	27
9	Hull	15	8	3	4	+3	-4.7	27
10	QPR	16	8	2	6	+5	+9.0	26
11	Southampton	14	7	4	3	+7	+9.2	25
12	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+5	-0.4	25
13	Charlton	16	7	4	5	+0	-0.8	25
14	Wrexham	16	6	6	4	+2	+6.6	24
15	Sheffield United	15	7	2	6	+8	+10.8	23
16	West Brom	15	6	5	4	-1	+8.4	23
17	Portsmouth	16	6	4	6	+2	+5.4	22
18	Leicester	16	6	4	6	+0	-0.7	22
19	Stoke	15	6	3	6	+5	-0.6	21
20	Derby	17	5	6	6	-2	-1.3	21
21	Blackburn	17	4	5	8	-6	+4.7	17
22	Norwich	15	5	1	9	-4	-0.4	16
23	Oxford	16	3	6	7	-9	-1.4	15
24	Sheffield Weds	17	0	4	13	-27	-16.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	15	8	3	4	+10	-2.8	27
2	Millwall	16	7	5	4	+0	-1.6	26
3	Hull	14	7	3	4	+5	-9.2	24
4	Wrexham	16	6	6	4	+3	-8.6	24
5	Middlesbrough	15	7	3	5	+0	+5.3	24
6	Coventry	16	6	5	5	+8	+10.3	23
7	Norwich	17	6	5	6	+4	-6.7	23
8	Bristol City	15	6	4	5	+0	-0.0	22
9	Stoke	17	6	4	7	+0	-8.0	22
10	Preston	16	5	6	5	-1	-9.0	21
11	Blackburn	16	6	3	7	-4	-1.4	21
12	Southampton	16	5	5	6	+1	+4.4	20
13	Ipswich	14	5	4	5	+4	+4.5	19
14	Sheffield United	17	6	1	10	-8	-0.7	19
15	QPR	16	4	6	6	-8	-6.7	18
16	Watford	16	3	7	6	-4	+0.4	16
17	Leicester	16	4	4	8	-7	-12.8	16
18	Birmingham	16	4	3	9	-11	-1.9	15
19	Swansea	16	4	2	10	-7	-4.0	14
20	Charlton	16	3	5	8	-10	-11.0	14
21	Portsmouth	15	3	5	7	-12	-7.1	14
22	Oxford	16	3	4	9	-7	-8.3	13
23	West Brom	17	3	2	12	-14	-5.5	11
24	Sheffield Weds	15	1	4	10	-18	-17.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.