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2. Bundesliga

Referee: F Prigan

Karlsruhe

S U T U T

3–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Karlsruhe Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 30%

32%

27%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

68%

50%

Both score Ø 60%

55%

64%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,39 xG 1,37

32% Possession 68%

14 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

23 Free kicks against 12

5 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Karlsruhe 11. · Holstein Kiel 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	22	13	4	5	+11	+7.2	43
2	Darmstadt	22	11	9	2	+18	+7.1	42
3	Elversberg	22	12	5	5	+15	+0.1	41
4	Hannover	22	12	5	5	+11	+11.2	41
5	Paderborn	22	12	4	6	+9	+8.7	40
6	Hertha	22	9	7	6	+7	-4.3	34
7	Kaiserslautern	22	10	4	8	+5	-0.9	34
8	Nurnberg	23	8	6	9	-2	+1.5	30
9	Bochum	23	7	8	8	+3	+5.9	29
10	Bielefeld	23	7	6	10	+4	+0.7	27
11	Karlsruhe	22	7	6	9	-11	-16.0	27
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	22	7	4	11	-11	-2.5	25
13	Braunschweig	22	7	4	11	-12	+0.7	25
14	Holstein Kiel	22	6	6	10	-4	-11.9	24
15	Preußen Münster	22	5	8	9	-7	-5.8	23
16	Magdeburg	22	7	2	13	-8	+5.5	23
17	Greuther Furth	23	6	4	13	-20	-7.1	22
18	Dresden	22	5	6	11	-8	-0.0	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	11	8	3	0	+16	+8.5	27
2	Kaiserslautern	12	8	1	3	+11	+2.7	25
3	Schalke 04	10	7	2	1	+6	+3.2	23
4	Nurnberg	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.9	22
5	Paderborn	11	7	1	3	+4	+6.3	22
6	Elversberg	10	5	4	1	+7	-0.4	19
7	Bochum	12	5	4	3	+5	+9.0	19
8	Hannover	10	6	1	3	+4	+8.5	19
9	Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+8	+7.5	17
10	Karlsruhe	10	5	2	3	+0	-7.6	17
11	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-2	-1.8	16
12	Preußen Münster	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	4	3	5	-5	-0.7	15
14	Braunschweig	12	4	3	5	-7	+2.2	15
15	Holstein Kiel	11	4	2	5	+1	-2.9	14
16	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	-9	-3.4	12
17	Dresden	11	2	3	6	-3	+3.8	9
18	Magdeburg	11	2	1	8	-8	+3.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	12	7	1	4	+8	+0.5	22
2	Hannover	12	6	4	2	+7	+2.8	22
3	Schalke 04	12	6	2	4	+5	+4.0	20
4	Hertha	10	5	3	2	+9	-2.5	18
5	Paderborn	11	5	3	3	+5	+2.3	18
6	Magdeburg	11	5	1	5	+0	+2.1	16
7	Darmstadt	11	3	6	2	+2	-1.4	15
8	Dresden	11	3	3	5	-5	-3.8	12
9	Bochum	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.1	10
10	Bielefeld	12	2	4	6	-4	-6.8	10
11	Holstein Kiel	11	2	4	5	-5	-9.0	10
12	Braunschweig	10	3	1	6	-5	-1.5	10
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	1	6	-6	-1.8	10
14	Greuther Furth	12	3	1	8	-11	-3.7	10
15	Karlsruhe	12	2	4	6	-11	-8.4	10
16	Kaiserslautern	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.6	9
17	Preußen Münster	11	2	2	7	-8	-6.2	8
18	Nurnberg	11	2	2	7	-8	-0.4	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.