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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Aston Villa

S T U S T

1–1

Full-time

Leeds

U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 43%

58%

27%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

62%

Both score Ø 58%

50%

65%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,46 xG 1,35

67% Possession 33%

16 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

4 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 3. · Leeds 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	27	17	7	3	+32	+27.8	58
2	Man City	26	16	5	5	+30	+18.2	53
3	Aston Villa	26	15	5	6	+10	-4.4	50
4	Man United	26	12	9	5	+10	+13.3	45
5	Chelsea	26	12	8	6	+17	+13.8	44
6	Liverpool	26	12	6	8	+6	+12.2	42
7	Brentford	26	12	4	10	+5	+5.5	40
8	Everton	26	10	7	9	-1	-7.4	37
9	Bournemouth	26	9	10	7	-2	+3.1	37
10	Newcastle	26	10	6	10	+0	+8.8	36
11	Sunderland	26	9	9	8	-3	-14.7	36
12	Fulham	26	10	4	12	-5	-6.3	34
13	Crystal Palace	26	8	8	10	-4	+7.5	32
14	Brighton	26	7	10	9	+0	+2.4	31
15	Leeds	26	7	9	10	-9	-1.8	30
16	Tottenham	26	7	8	11	-1	-9.9	29
17	Nott'm Forest	26	7	6	13	-13	-8.1	27
18	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-17	-14.3	24
19	Burnley	26	4	6	16	-23	-29.3	18
20	Wolves	27	1	7	19	-32	-16.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+24	+12.4	32
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+23	+15.8	32
3	Aston Villa	13	9	1	3	+9	+2.7	28
4	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	+12.1	27
5	Sunderland	13	7	5	1	+11	-3.4	26
6	Brentford	13	7	4	2	+11	+8.1	25
7	Liverpool	13	7	3	3	+7	+9.3	24
8	Fulham	13	7	2	4	+6	-1.3	23
9	Bournemouth	13	6	5	2	+6	+9.8	23
10	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+4	+9.4	23
11	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+7	+7.7	22
12	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+4	+6.8	22
13	Brighton	13	5	6	2	+6	+3.6	21
14	Everton	13	4	4	5	-2	-1.0	16
15	Nott'm Forest	13	3	4	6	-5	+1.2	13
16	Crystal Palace	13	2	6	5	-5	+8.0	12
17	West Ham	13	3	2	8	-10	-4.4	11
18	Tottenham	13	2	4	7	-2	-2.4	10
19	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-7	-10.6	10
20	Wolves	14	1	3	10	-17	-6.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	7	5	2	+9	+12.0	26
2	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+10	+6.0	22
3	Aston Villa	13	6	4	3	+1	-7.1	22
4	Man City	13	6	3	4	+6	+5.8	21
5	Everton	13	6	3	4	+1	-6.5	21
6	Crystal Palace	13	6	2	5	+1	-0.5	20
7	Tottenham	13	5	4	4	+1	-7.5	19
8	Man United	13	4	6	3	+0	+1.3	18
9	Liverpool	13	5	3	5	-1	+2.8	18
10	Brentford	13	5	0	8	-6	-2.6	15
11	Bournemouth	13	3	5	5	-8	-6.6	14
12	Nott'm Forest	13	4	2	7	-8	-9.3	14
13	Newcastle	13	3	4	6	-4	-0.6	13
14	West Ham	13	3	4	6	-7	-9.9	13
15	Fulham	13	3	2	8	-11	-5.1	11
16	Brighton	13	2	4	7	-6	-1.1	10
17	Sunderland	13	2	4	7	-14	-11.3	10
18	Leeds	13	1	5	7	-13	-8.6	8
19	Burnley	13	2	2	9	-16	-18.6	8
20	Wolves	13	0	4	9	-15	-9.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.