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Serie A
Referee: P Valeri
Parma
T T S S T
5–1
Full-time
Genoa
T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Genoa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,3
0,8
Conceded
1,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,2
This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 29%
43%
14%
Points per game
1,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
43%
86%
Both score Ø 57%
43%
71%
Average goals
2,6
3,3
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,4
2,1
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

37% Possession 63%
15 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 6
6 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 7
9 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Parma 13. · Genoa 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 8 7 1 0 +8 22
2 Inter 8 7 0 1 +11 21
3 Atalanta 8 5 2 1 +8 17
4 Napoli 8 5 1 2 +7 16
5 Cagliari 8 4 2 2 +5 14
6 Roma 8 3 4 1 +2 13
7 Lazio 8 3 3 2 +7 12
8 Fiorentina 7 3 2 2 +2 11
9 Torino 8 3 1 4 -1 10
10 Udinese 8 3 1 4 -2 10
11 Bologna 8 2 3 3 -1 9
12 Verona 8 2 3 3 -1 9
13 Parma 7 3 0 4 -2 9
14 Milan 7 3 0 4 -3 9
15 Sassuolo 7 2 0 5 -2 6
16 Brescia 6 2 0 4 -2 6
17 Lecce 7 2 0 5 -8 6
18 Spal 8 2 0 6 -9 6
19 Genoa 7 1 2 4 -7 5
20 Sampdoria 8 1 1 6 -12 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Parma Genoa
Andreas Cornelius 🔁
↦ Roberto Inglese
12′
23′
🟨 Ivan Radovanović
Matteo Scozzarella 🟨
29′
1–0 Juraj Kucka
Dejan Kulusevski
38′
2–0 Andreas Cornelius
Matteo Scozzarella
42′
3–0 Andreas Cornelius
Gervinho
45′
Half-time 3–0
46′
🔁 Andrea Pinamonti
↦ Goran Pandev
4–0 Andreas Cornelius
Dejan Kulusevski
50′
52′
Andrea Pinamonti 4–1
Paolo Ghiglione
54′
🔁 Peter Ankersen
↦ Edoardo Goldaniga
Hernani 🔁
↦ Matteo Scozzarella
62′
71′
🔁 Filip Jagiełło
↦ Lasse Schöne
Giuseppe Pezzella 🔁
↦ Kastriot Dermaku
75′
5–1 Dejan Kulusevski
79′
83′
🟨 Christian Kouamé
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Parma

4-3-3
1 Luigi Sepe G
36 Matteo Darmian D
2 Simone Iacoponi D
3 Kastriot Dermaku D
28 Riccardo Gagliolo D
33 Juraj Kucka M
21 Matteo Scozzarella M
17 Antonino Barillà M
44 Dejan Kulusevski F
9 Roberto Inglese F
27 Gervinho F
Bench (10)
53 Fabrizio Alastra
34 Simone Colombi
97 Giuseppe Pezzella
93 Mattia Sprocati
8 Alberto Grassi
15 Gastón Brugman
23 Drissa Camara
10 Hernani
7 Yann Karamoh
11 Andreas Cornelius

Coach: R. D'Aversa

Genoa

3-1-4-2
97 Andrei Radu G
5 Edoardo Goldaniga D
2 Cristián Zapata D
13 Jawad El Yamiq D
21 Ivan Radovanović M
18 Paolo Ghiglione M
20 Lasse Schöne M
8 Lukas Lerager M
33 Marko Pajač M
11 Christian Kouamé F
19 Goran Pandev F
Bench (10)
93 Jandrei
22 Federico Marchetti
32 Peter Ankersen
72 Vasco da Cunha
3 Antonio Barreca
15 Filip Jagiełło
29 Francesco Cassata
28 Kevin Agudelo
99 Andrea Pinamonti
9 Antonio Sanabria

Coach: A. Andreazzoli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,51
U
3,21
B
2,95
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,02
U2,5
1,81
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Valeri · 55 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.