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Serie A
Referee: L Pairetto
Roma
T S T S U
3–1
Full-time
Fiorentina
U S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,7
2,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%
11 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 8
0 Blocked shots 1
7 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 4
4 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 1

Match report

Roma Fiorentina
Lorenzo Pellegrini 🟨
12′
17′
🟥 Bartłomiej Drągowski
20′
🔁 P. Terracciano
↦ José Callejón
1–0 H. Mkhitaryan
T. Abraham
26′
Henrikh Mkhitaryan ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
28′
28′
ℹ️ Henrikh Mkhitaryan
VAR: Goal cancelled
Nicolò Zaniolo 🟨
44′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 G. Castrovilli
↦ Y. Maleh
48′
🟨 Giacomo Bonaventura
Nicolò Zaniolo 🟨
52′
Nicolò Zaniolo 🟥
52′
53′
🟨 Erick Pulgar
60′
N. Milenković 1–1
E. Pulgar
2–1 J. Veretout
T. Abraham
64′
Jordan Veretout ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
65′
65′
ℹ️ Jordan Veretout
VAR: Goal cancelled
E. Shomurodov 🔁
↦ T. Abraham
69′
74′
🔁 M. Benassi
↦ G. Bonaventura
3–1 J. Veretout
E. Shomurodov
79′
Carles Pérez 🔁
↦ L. Pellegrini
84′
S. El Shaarawy 🔁
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
84′
84′
🔁 R. Saponara
↦ L. Venuti
84′
🔁 R. Sottil
↦ N. González
E. Bove 🔁
↦ J. Veretout
87′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Roma

4-2-3-1
1 Rui Patrício G
2 R. Karsdorp D
23 G. Mancini D
5 M. Viña D
3 Ibañez D
77 H. Mkhitaryan M
17 J. Veretout M
4 B. Cristante M
7 L. Pellegrini M
22 N. Zaniolo M
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (12)
14 E. Shomurodov
11 Carles Pérez
92 S. El Shaarawy
52 E. Bove
24 M. Kumbulla
42 A. Diawara
59 N. Zalewski
19 B. Reynolds
21 Borja Mayoral
8 Gonzalo Villar
87 Daniel Fuzato
13 R. Calafiori

Coach: José Mourinho

Fiorentina

4-3-3
69 B. Drągowski G
3 C. Biraghi D
23 L. Venuti D
98 Igor D
4 N. Milenković D
5 G. Bonaventura M
15 E. Pulgar M
14 Y. Maleh M
7 José Callejón F
9 D. Vlahović F
22 N. González F
Bench (12)
1 P. Terracciano
10 G. Castrovilli
24 M. Benassi
8 R. Saponara
33 R. Sottil
91 A. Kokorin
32 A. Duncan
17 A. Terzić
2 L. Martínez
67 L. Munteanu
30 L. Ranieri
42 A. Bianco

Coach: V. Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,77
U
3,85
B
4,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,68
U2,5
2,20
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

L Pairetto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.