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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Napoli

U S S U T

4–0

Full-time

Lazio

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 62%

77%

46%

Points per game

2,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

54%

69%

Both score Ø 50%

38%

62%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

2,0

1,9

Conceded

0,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Lazio 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Milan	14	10	2	2	+12	32
3	Inter	14	9	4	1	+19	31
4	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+11	28
5	Roma	14	8	1	5	+9	25
6	Lazio	13	6	3	4	+4	21
7	Fiorentina	14	7	0	7	+2	21
8	Juventus	14	6	3	5	+2	21
9	Bologna	14	6	3	5	-4	21
10	Verona	14	5	4	5	+3	19
11	Empoli	14	6	1	7	-5	19
12	Sassuolo	14	5	3	6	+1	18
13	Torino	14	5	2	7	+3	17
14	Udinese	14	3	6	5	-4	15
15	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-6	15
16	Venezia	14	4	3	7	-9	15
17	Spezia	14	3	2	9	-17	11
18	Genoa	14	1	7	6	-9	10
19	Cagliari	14	1	5	8	-13	8
20	Salernitana	14	2	2	10	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	7	5	1	1	+10	16
2	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+9	16
3	Milan	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	Roma	7	5	1	1	+6	16
5	Verona	7	5	0	2	+7	15
6	Inter	6	4	2	0	+12	14
7	Torino	7	4	1	2	+7	13
8	Bologna	7	4	1	2	+4	13
9	Fiorentina	6	4	0	2	+5	12
10	Juventus	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Udinese	8	2	4	2	-1	10
12	Atalanta	7	2	3	2	+2	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	+0	8
14	Sampdoria	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Spezia	7	2	1	4	-2	7
16	Venezia	6	2	1	3	-2	7
17	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-8	7
18	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-3	6
19	Salernitana	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Inter	8	5	2	1	+7	17
3	Napoli	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Milan	7	5	1	1	+5	16
5	Empoli	6	4	0	2	+3	12
6	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Roma	7	3	0	4	+3	9
9	Fiorentina	8	3	0	5	-3	9
10	Venezia	8	2	2	4	-7	8
11	Bologna	7	2	2	3	-8	8
12	Sampdoria	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Genoa	8	1	4	3	-5	7
14	Udinese	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Verona	7	0	4	3	-4	4
17	Torino	7	1	1	5	-4	4
18	Salernitana	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Spezia	7	1	1	5	-15	4
20	Cagliari	6	0	2	4	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.