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Eredivisie
Referee: J Kamphuis
0–1
Full-time
Ajax
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sparta Rotterdam Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 17%
33%
0%
Average goals
1,8
2,2
Scored
0,8
2,0
Conceded
1,0
0,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,8
This season — Eredivisie · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 42%
15%
69%
Points per game
0,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
38%
54%
Both score Ø 27%
46%
8%
Average goals
2,4
3,4
Scored
0,8
3,2
Conceded
1,5
0,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+3,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

28% Possession 72%
1 Shots 15
0 Shots on target 8
0 Blocked shots 5
7 Goalkeeper saves 0
1 Corners 11
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 5
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sparta Rotterdam 16. · Ajax 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 13 9 3 1 +40 30
2 PSV Eindhoven 13 10 0 3 +13 30
3 Feyenoord 12 9 1 2 +18 28
4 Cambuur 14 8 0 6 -3 24
5 Utrecht 12 7 2 3 +13 23
6 Twente 13 6 3 4 +2 21
7 Go Ahead Eagles 14 6 2 6 -5 20
8 Nijmegen 14 5 4 5 -3 19
9 Vitesse 12 6 1 5 -8 19
10 Willem II 14 5 3 6 -7 18
11 Heerenveen 12 5 2 5 -2 17
12 Groningen 14 4 5 5 -4 17
13 Heracles 12 4 2 6 -3 14
14 AZ Alkmaar 11 4 1 6 +2 13
15 Waalwijk 14 2 6 6 -8 12
16 Sparta Rotterdam 13 2 4 7 -9 10
17 For Sittard 13 2 3 8 -17 9
18 Zwolle 14 1 2 11 -19 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sparta Rotterdam Ajax
B. van Leer 🔁
↦ M. Okoye
24′
36′
D. Tadić 0–1
Danilo
Half-time 0–1
M. Engels 🔁
↦ A. Auassar
73′
L. Thy 🔁
↦ E. Emegha
73′
80′
🔁 D. Klaassen
↦ Danilo
88′
🔁 N. Tagliafico
↦ D. Blind
94′
🟨 David Neres
Mario Engels 🟨
95′
Bryan Smeets 🟨
95′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam

5-4-1
1 M. Okoye G
3 B. Vriends D
4 T. Beugelsdijk D
5 M. Pinto D
2 M. Heylen D
7 G. Masouras D
8 D. Abels M
6 A. Auassar M
10 B. Smeets M
11 V. van Crooij M
9 E. Emegha F
Bench (9)
20 B. van Leer
17 M. Engels
19 L. Thy
12 L. Jans
14 S. Mijnans
30 T. Coremans
15 A. Meijers
18 K. Goudmijn
13 J. van Mullem

Coach: H. Fraser

Ajax

4-2-3-1
32 R. Pasveer G
17 D. Blind D
12 N. Mazraoui D
21 Lisandro Martínez D
2 J. Timber D
4 E. Álvarez M
8 R. Gravenberch M
10 D. Tadić M
23 S. Berghuis M
7 David Neres M
9 Danilo F
Bench (9)
6 D. Klaassen
31 N. Tagliafico
24 A. Onana
30 M. Daramy
15 D. Rensch
19 Z. Labyad
25 K. Taylor
3 P. Schuurs
16 J. Gorter

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
15,77
U
7,77
B ✓
1,16
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,37
U2,5 ✓
3,02
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Kamphuis · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.