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Ligue 1
Referee: J Pignard
Marseille
S U U S U
1–0
Full-time
Troyes
S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Troyes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
1,7
2,5
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 13/14 matches
Win Ø 34%
46%
21%
Points per game
1,8
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
38%
43%
Both score Ø 52%
46%
57%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,5
0,9
Conceded
0,9
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,6
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%
14 Shots 5
4 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 5. · Troyes 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 15 13 1 1 +20 40
2 Rennes 15 8 4 3 +14 28
3 Nice 15 8 3 4 +13 27
4 Lens 15 7 4 4 +7 25
5 Marseille 13 6 5 2 +8 23
6 Angers 15 5 7 3 +4 22
7 Lyon 14 6 4 4 +1 22
8 Strasbourg 15 5 5 5 +6 20
9 Monaco 15 5 5 5 +1 20
10 Nantes 15 5 4 6 +0 19
11 Montpellier 15 5 4 6 -1 19
12 Brest 15 4 6 5 +0 18
13 Lille 15 4 6 5 -3 18
14 Reims 15 3 7 5 -2 16
15 Lorient 15 3 6 6 -10 15
16 Troyes 14 3 4 7 -9 13
17 Bordeaux 15 2 7 6 -10 13
18 Clermont 15 3 4 8 -12 13
19 Metz 15 2 6 7 -13 12
20 St Etienne 15 2 6 7 -14 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Troyes
10′
🟨 Yoann Salmier
Pape Gueye 🟨
16′
17′
🟨 Florian Tardieu
43′
🟨 Youssouf Koné
Half-time 0–0
59′
🟨 Gerson Rodrigues
C. Dieng 🔁
↦ K. De La Fuente
69′
1–0 Pol Lirola
D. Payet
74′
75′
🔁 X. Chavalerin
↦ R. Kouamé
76′
🔁 T. Dingomé
↦ Mama Baldé
76′
🔁 Suk Hyun-Jun
↦ Y. Touzghar
79′
🔁 R. Ripart
↦ A. Rami
Gerson 🔁
↦ A. Milik
82′
Luis Henrique 🔁
↦ Pol Lirola
86′
87′
🔁 N. Chadli
↦ Y. Koné
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Marseille

4-1-4-1
16 Pau López G
3 Álvaro González D
14 Luan Peres D
29 Pol Lirola M
2 W. Saliba D
10 D. Payet M
21 V. Rongier D
6 M. Guendouzi M
22 P. Gueye M
9 A. Milik F
20 K. De La Fuente M
Bench (9)
12 C. Dieng
8 Gerson
11 Luis Henrique
15 D. Ćaleta-Car
30 S. Mandanda
4 B. Kamara
5 L. Balerdi
23 J. Amavi
7 A. Harit

Coach: J. Sampaoli

Troyes

5-4-1
30 G. Gallon G
23 A. Rami D
8 J. Giraudon D
3 Y. Koné D
17 Y. Salmier D
4 G. Biancone D
10 F. Tardieu M
6 R. Kouamé M
7 Y. Touzghar F
11 G. Rodrigues M
25 Mama Baldé M
Bench (9)
24 X. Chavalerin
5 T. Dingomé
9 Suk Hyun-Jun
20 R. Ripart
28 N. Chadli
29 I. Kaboré
40 J. Moulin
19 O. El Hajjam
14 D. Chambost

Coach: L. Batlles

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,54
U
4,37
B
5,82
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,70
U2,5 ✓
2,16
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Pignard · 145 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.