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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Dortmund

S U S S S

2–2

Full-time

Mainz

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,7

3,7

Scored

3,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+2,7

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 52%

67%

36%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

70%

64%

Both score Ø 60%

55%

64%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

2,5

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

4,00 xG 1,83

73% Possession 27%

30 Shots 10

12 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 1. · Mainz 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	33	22	4	7	+39	+21.7	70
2	Bayern Munich	33	20	8	5	+53	+16.0	68
3	RB Leipzig	33	19	6	8	+21	+13.6	63
4	Union Berlin	33	17	8	8	+12	-4.9	59
5	Freiburg	33	17	8	8	+8	-4.7	59
6	Leverkusen	33	14	8	11	+11	+9.3	50
7	Wolfsburg	33	13	10	10	+10	+4.0	49
8	Ein Frankfurt	33	12	11	10	+5	+1.1	47
9	Mainz	33	12	9	12	-1	-1.8	45
10	FC Koln	33	10	12	11	-4	+4.1	42
11	M'gladbach	33	10	10	13	-5	-6.1	40
12	Werder Bremen	33	10	6	17	-12	-6.4	36
13	Hoffenheim	33	10	5	18	-9	-4.8	35
14	Augsburg	33	9	7	17	-19	-10.5	34
15	Stuttgart	33	7	11	15	-12	+1.3	32
16	Bochum	33	9	5	19	-35	-10.0	32
17	Schalke 04	33	7	10	16	-34	-7.7	31
18	Hertha	33	6	8	19	-28	-14.0	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	16	14	1	1	+38	+14.1	43
2	Bayern Munich	17	11	5	1	+36	+15.8	38
3	RB Leipzig	16	12	2	2	+18	+1.4	38
4	Union Berlin	16	10	6	0	+18	-1.1	36
5	Freiburg	17	10	4	3	+15	-1.3	34
6	M'gladbach	16	9	3	4	+13	+4.1	30
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	5	3	+16	+6.5	29
8	Leverkusen	17	8	3	6	+12	+4.8	27
9	Wolfsburg	16	6	7	3	+10	+5.7	25
10	Mainz	17	6	6	5	+6	-0.5	24
11	FC Koln	16	6	5	5	+9	+7.0	23
12	Hoffenheim	17	7	2	8	-1	+2.1	23
13	Bochum	16	7	2	7	-7	-2.8	23
14	Augsburg	17	6	4	7	-8	-5.4	22
15	Hertha	17	5	6	6	-3	-2.5	21
16	Stuttgart	16	5	5	6	+1	+1.6	20
17	Schalke 04	17	5	5	7	-13	-2.5	20
18	Werder Bremen	17	5	2	10	-2	+1.2	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	9	3	4	+17	+0.3	30
2	Dortmund	17	8	3	6	+1	+7.6	27
3	RB Leipzig	17	7	4	6	+3	+12.2	25
4	Freiburg	16	7	4	5	-7	-3.4	25
5	Wolfsburg	17	7	3	7	+0	-1.8	24
6	Leverkusen	16	6	5	5	-1	+4.5	23
7	Union Berlin	17	7	2	8	-6	-3.8	23
8	Mainz	16	6	3	7	-7	-1.2	21
9	Werder Bremen	16	5	4	7	-10	-7.6	19
10	FC Koln	17	4	7	6	-13	-2.8	19
11	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	6	7	-11	-5.4	18
12	Hoffenheim	16	3	3	10	-8	-6.9	12
13	Augsburg	16	3	3	10	-11	-5.2	12
14	Stuttgart	17	2	6	9	-13	-0.3	12
15	Schalke 04	16	2	5	9	-21	-5.3	11
16	M'gladbach	17	1	7	9	-18	-10.3	10
17	Bochum	17	2	3	12	-28	-7.2	9
18	Hertha	16	1	2	13	-25	-11.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.