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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Paris SG

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Brest

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

3,2

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

5,0

4,0

Scored

4,3

1,7

Conceded

0,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

+3,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,88 xG 0,97

67% Possession 33%

22 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 3. · Brest 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+8	+1.8	10
2	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	+5.5	10
3	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+11	+7.0	9
4	Nantes	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.4	7
5	Lens	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.2	7
6	Le Havre	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.8	6
7	Lille	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.1	6
8	Strasbourg	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.1	4
9	Nice	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.3	4
10	Reims	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.7	4
11	Rennes	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.2	3
12	Brest	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
13	Lyon	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.0	3
14	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.2	3
15	St Etienne	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.7	3
16	Toulouse	3	0	2	1	-2	+1.1	2
17	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.2	1
18	Angers	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.9	4
2	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
3	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+6	+3.2	3
4	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.0	3
5	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
6	Nantes	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
7	Lens	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.1	3
8	Brest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
9	Lille	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
10	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.0	3
11	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.5	3
12	Reims	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
13	St Etienne	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
14	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.7	3
15	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
16	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
17	Toulouse	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.4	1
18	Angers	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.9	6
2	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.9	6
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.2	6
4	Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
5	Lens	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.1	4
6	Le Havre	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
7	Lille	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.0	3
8	Nice	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.0	3
9	Reims	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
10	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
11	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
12	Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
13	Brest	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.1	0
14	Rennes	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
15	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.0	0
16	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0
17	St Etienne	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.5	0
18	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.