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Premier League
Referee: S Barrott
Southampton
T U S S T
0–1
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
1,0
2,0
Scored
0,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,14 xG 2,45
65% Possession 35%
5 Shots 23
1 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 7
7 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 10
0 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Southampton 15. · Nott'm Forest 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Brighton 2 2 0 0 +4 +1.6 6
2 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 +2 +0.8 3
3 Man City 1 1 0 0 +2 -0.2 3
4 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 +2 +2.2 3
5 Aston Villa 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.4 3
6 Brentford 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.4 3
7 Newcastle 1 1 0 0 +1 -1.5 3
8 Man United 2 1 0 1 +0 +1.3 3
9 Leicester 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.1 1
10 Tottenham 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.1 1
11 Nott'm Forest 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.1 1
12 Bournemouth 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.1 1
13 West Ham 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.4 0
14 Crystal Palace 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.4 0
15 Southampton 1 0 0 1 -1 +1.5 0
16 Fulham 1 0 0 1 -1 -2.0 0
17 Wolves 1 0 0 1 -2 -0.8 0
18 Chelsea 1 0 0 1 -2 +0.2 0
19 Ipswich 1 0 0 1 -2 -2.2 0
20 Everton 1 0 0 1 -3 -1.0 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Southampton Nott'm Forest
Adam Armstrong 🟨
11′
Flynn Downes 🟨
29′
Half-time 0–0
54′
🟨 Ibrahim Sangaré
61′
🟨 Chris Wood
66′
🔁 R. Yates
↦ I. Sangaré
70′
M. Gibbs-White 0–1
S. Edozie 🔁
↦ A. Armstrong
71′
C. Archer 🔁
↦ Y. Sugawara
72′
75′
🔁 N. Domínguez
↦ E. Anderson
75′
🔁 T. Awoniyi
↦ C. Wood
C. Taylor 🔁
↦ J. Aribo
76′
Mateus Fernandes 🔁
↦ T. Harwood-Bellis
76′
Jan Bednarek 🟨
82′
T. Dibling 🔁
↦ W. Smallbone
84′
88′
🟨 Nicolás Domínguez
92′
🔁 Jota Silva
↦ M. Gibbs-White
92′
🔁 W. Boly
↦ C. Hudson-Odoi
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Southampton

3-5-2
1 A. McCarthy G
6 T. Harwood-Bellis D
35 J. Bednarek D
5 J. Stephens D
16 Y. Sugawara M
8 W. Smallbone M
4 F. Downes M
7 J. Aribo M
2 K. Walker-Peters M
9 A. Armstrong F
17 B. Brereton F
Bench (9)
23 S. Edozie
19 C. Archer
21 C. Taylor
18 Mateus Fernandes
33 T. Dibling
26 L. Ugochukwu
13 J. Lumley
27 S. Amo-Ameyaw
14 J. Bree

Coach: R. Martin

Nott'm Forest

4-2-3-1
26 M. Sels G
7 N. Williams D
31 N. Milenković D
5 Murillo D
34 O. Aina D
6 I. Sangaré M
8 E. Anderson M
21 A. Elanga M
10 M. Gibbs-White M
14 C. Hudson-Odoi M
11 C. Wood F
Bench (9)
22 R. Yates
16 N. Domínguez
9 T. Awoniyi
20 Jota Silva
30 W. Boly
15 H. Toffolo
17 E. da Silva Moreira
33 Carlos Miguel
12 A. Omobamidele

Coach: Nuno Espírito Santo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,57
U
3,32
B ✓
2,84
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,97
U2,5 ✓
1,87
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Barrott · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.