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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Aston Villa

T S U S T

4–0

Full-time

Everton

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

6,0

1,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

5,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-4,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,00 xG 0,63

60% Possession 40%

13 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 20. · Everton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.6	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
3	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+3	+4.4	4
4	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.7	4
5	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.3	4
6	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.9	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
9	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
10	Man United	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
11	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-4.7	3
12	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.5	1
15	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
16	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
17	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
18	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.1	0
20	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
3	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
4	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
6	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
7	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
9	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
10	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
11	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
13	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
14	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.1	0
15	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
16	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
3	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
4	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
5	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
6	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
7	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
8	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
9	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
10	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
11	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
12	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
13	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
14	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
15	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
16	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.