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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Ferreira

Boavista

T U T T S

0–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Boavista Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 35%

30%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,74 xG 0,14

52% Possession 48%

24 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 1

9 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Boavista 13. · Rio Ave 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	10	0	0	+32	+23.9	30
2	Porto	10	9	0	1	+23	+15.8	27
3	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+18	+11.8	22
4	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+10	+5.6	20
5	Guimaraes	10	5	3	2	+2	+2.2	18
6	Santa Clara	10	6	0	4	+1	+6.6	18
7	Famalicao	11	4	5	2	+3	-3.6	17
8	Moreirense	11	5	2	4	+1	+3.7	17
9	Casa Pia	11	3	4	4	-4	-2.4	13
10	Gil Vicente	11	2	4	5	-5	-4.5	10
11	Estoril	11	2	4	5	-8	-11.8	10
12	AVS	11	2	4	5	-10	-4.7	10
13	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.8	9
14	Rio Ave	10	2	3	5	-12	-7.3	9
15	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	-0.5	8
16	Arouca	11	2	2	7	-13	-10.4	8
17	Estrela	10	1	3	6	-12	-9.0	6
18	Farense	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	+14.5	18
2	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+16	+9.0	15
3	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
4	Santa Clara	5	4	0	1	+2	+5.0	12
5	Moreirense	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.1	11
6	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.2	10
7	Guimaraes	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.4	10
8	Rio Ave	5	2	3	0	+2	+2.8	9
9	Famalicao	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.6	9
10	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.5	8
11	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.3	8
12	Estoril	6	2	2	2	-2	-6.8	8
13	AVS	6	2	2	2	-4	-3.1	8
14	Nacional	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.4	6
15	Estrela	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
16	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
17	Farense	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.3	3
18	Boavista	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+19	+13.7	15
2	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+4	+0.4	10
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	+1.3	9
4	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.0	8
5	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
6	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.4	8
7	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.8	7
8	Santa Clara	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.6	6
9	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-3	+3.6	6
10	Casa Pia	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.7	5
11	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-9	-5.5	4
12	Nacional	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.9	2
13	AVS	5	0	2	3	-6	-1.6	2
14	Farense	6	0	2	4	-6	-8.5	2
15	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.9	2
16	Gil Vicente	6	0	2	4	-9	-6.0	2
17	Estrela	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.8	1
18	Rio Ave	5	0	0	5	-14	-10.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.