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Ligue 1

Referee: K Abed

Brest

T T T T S

3–2

Full-time

Lorient

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,7

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 16. · Lorient 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rennes	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	St Etienne	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Lens	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Lille	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Monaco	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Montpellier	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Paris SG	4	2	0	2	+2	6
8	Marseille	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Angers	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Nice	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+2	5
12	Bordeaux	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Nimes	4	1	1	2	+1	4
14	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Lorient	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Brest	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Reims	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-3	0
19	Dijon	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Strasbourg	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Etienne	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Montpellier	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Lens	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Lyon	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Lille	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Nimes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Lorient	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Nantes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Paris SG	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Angers	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Nice	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Bordeaux	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Brest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Reims	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Metz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Dijon	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Paris SG	2	1	0	1	+2	3
4	St Etienne	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Bordeaux	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Angers	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Lens	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Nice	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Monaco	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Brest	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Reims	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Nimes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Metz	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Dijon	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Strasbourg	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.